The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, issued an ultimatum on Wednesday, 3 April to the British authorities: the United Kingdom must have "declared" by 12 April at the latest - “the final date" - in favour of the agreement on an orderly Brexit for the European Union to accept “an extension [of the deadlines in Article 50] until 22 May”.
Otherwise, “no short extensions will be possible", he told the European Parliament in a mini plenary session.
Mr Juncker was speaking the day after British Prime Minister Theresa May announced her intention to form a transparent alliance with the opposition embodied by Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party. Such an alliance, which is still somewhat vague, would aim to form a positive majority in the British Parliament on the UK's orderly withdrawal agreement and on a smoother exit from the EU ('soft Brexit’) than that provided for in the declaration on future bilateral relations, for example through a permanent customs union with the Twenty-Seven.
Yet the concept of a customs union has been rejected by Ms May's government and the House of Commons on several occasions.
Ms May's announcement was accompanied by the UK's request for a further extension of the deadlines in Article 50, this time until 22 May, the day before the European elections are held.
This date had already been initially accepted by the Twenty-Seven on 21 March in the event of a positive vote in the House of Commons on the orderly withdrawal agreement (see EUROPE 12219/1). It implied that the United Kingdom would not hold European elections.
For Mr Juncker, this short extension is therefore still possible, but always subject to a positive signal from Westminster, failing which a no-deal withdrawal will become the likely scenario. He also said he was ready to work as soon as possible on amending the political declaration on post-Brexit bilateral relations, "all kinds of options” being possible.
A no-deal Brexit "very likely"
Nevertheless, in the opinion of the President of the Commission, a "no deal on April 12 at midnight,” at this stage, "is now a very likely scenario”. "It is not the one we want, but we are preparing for it," he added.
On Wednesday, the Commission presented a new communication on contingency measures in the customs area (see EUROPE 12228/8).
Many MEPs supported the Commission's approach. For the German Elmar Brok (EPP), member of the European Parliament’s steering committee on Brexit, it is important to settle the Brexit issue before the European elections. If Brexit is not finalised by then, a long extension of the deadlines should then be chosen, he said.
However, Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE, Belgium), who heads the Parliament’s steering committee on Brexit, is far from enthusiastic about the idea of a long extension and of the United Kingdom's participation in the European elections. Accepting that the United Kingdom has "one foot in, one foot out" of the EU and giving the "keys" of that period to Boris Johnson (if he were to become Prime Minister) "would be a disaster for the EU”, he said.
Italian Social Democrat Roberto Gualtieri, who is still waiting for further details on the alliance between May and Corbyn, said that, in the absence of a solution, "the people must have the last word". And as such, a long extension of the delays should not be ruled out even if, in his opinion, it should be duly justified and accompanied by an "obligation of loyal cooperation”.
For the ECR group, Britain's Jacqueline Foster argued for the EU's "patience”, claiming that the agreement on an orderly Brexit was the only possible way forward.
On Tuesday evening, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, also called on the Twenty-Seven to be "patient" via Twitter, a message opposite the one from Jean-Claude Juncker. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)