On Friday 22 March, European leaders formally adopted the decision extending the negotiation period on Brexit as provided for in Article 50 of the Treaty.
Under an agreement agreed the previous evening between the Twenty-Seven and the United Kingdom (see EUROPE 12219/1), the British withdrawal from the European Union has now been postponed: - to 22 May if the agreement allowing for an orderly Brexit is passed in the House of Commons or; - to 12 April if Prime Minister Theresa May once again fails to get the agreement approved.
In the event of a failure, the British Government will have to inform Europe what it intends to do before 12 April. In particular, it must indicate whether it intends to hold European elections in the UK, which is an essential condition for requesting a longer extension period of Article 50. If this is not the case, the prospect of a no-deal Brexit will inevitably increase.
Although no specific details were given by the Twenty-Seven on Thursday, the potential 'long' extension to the discussions should ideally be a ‘year', a diplomat explained on Thursday evening. This would allow the European elections to take place, new heads of European institutions to be appointed, and the post-2020 multiannual financial framework to be tied down.
But here, once again, London will need to have a credible plan and a genuine new strategy regarding bilateral relations with the EU, relations that are potentially closer than those envisaged in the declaration on future relations that supplements the British withdrawal agreement.
Mrs May was back in London on Friday morning. Returning to London on Friday, Theresa May made it clear to British MPs that a third parliamentary vote will take place next week, possibly on Tuesday 26 or Wednesday 27 March.
According to British media reports, the British Prime Minister has been considering a vote on seven options, including a revocation of Article 50, while a petition circulating on this very topic among British citizens, has gathered 3 million signatures. Other options might include the holding of a second referendum or the request for a permanent customs union with the EU, two working areas that have already been massively rejected by members.
The British leader was, in any case, very clear on Thursday evening that she did not consider the revocation of Article 50 to be a good idea or indeed the fact that her fellow citizens should be involved in the European elections. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, however, believes it is possible that this petition on the revocation of Article 50 could come up in the debate in the "British Parliament".
At this point, few leaders are likely to bet that the British Parliament will approve the withdrawal agreement negotiated by Mrs May next week, while some leaders, such as French President Emmanuel Macron, have assessed the chances of success at less than 5%. Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel thought on Friday that the odds were "50/50", an estimate publicly taken up by Mark Rutte (Netherlands), later in the day.
According to another European source, it is also conceivable that Mrs May will leave in mid-April when the British Government will have to say whether it is holding European elections.
Should the parliamentary vote fail, there is a good chance that an extraordinary summit will be convened shortly before 12 April. For Mrs Merkel, it is indeed obvious that the Twenty-seven will have to meet again about this topic.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar referred to "three options: an exit without an agreement, the withdrawal agreement, or a closer long-term relationship with the EU that would potentially include a customs union". He would, he said, be "delighted" if the latter option won.
According to the Financial Times, Mrs Merkel is reported to have asked EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier to develop a plan to deal with a no-deal Brexit agreement in respect of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Leo Varadkar, himself, has denied the idea of setting up a specific task force. However, he pointed out that the British government had already issued plans in case of crashing out without a deal. These plans, he noted, are based on alternative arrangements that are similar to the safety net designed to prevent a physical border once more being put in place in Ireland.
The declaration of the Twenty-Seven can be viewed here: http://bit.ly/2HQA47L. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic and editorial staff)