Playing for time can be a good tactic, but only if there is something to play for. And heading into the winter break, it’s not clear when, how and if Brexit will happen at all.
There is plenty of speculation and many future scenarios are in play. All we know for sure is that a vote on the UK-EU withdrawal agreement is scheduled for 14 January (see EUROPE 12161) - and that under the UK’s own (separate) withdrawal act, Parliament has until 21 January to come forward with a statement that would avoid a no-deal outcome.
But both sides appear to be ramping up preparations for no deal, with the UK removing language in government briefing notes calling it “unlikely”, and ministers such as Sajid Javid pushing for a “managed no deal” with a series of sectoral deals to keep planes flying and trade flowing. And Chancellor Philip Hammond calling on government departments to allocate the 2 billion-pound contingency fund he set aside in the budget for things like customs, immigration and trade infrastructure.
The EU this week also fleshed out its preparations for no deal in several sectors (see EUROPE 12163). But the two sides are working in parallel, and it’s difficult to see what, if anything, could be worked out with less than a month to go to a second vote. EU and UK negotiators have not been in talks, even at technical level, since the December summit (see EUROPE 12160, 12159), an indication of the strain and frustration in Brussels at the state of the British political process.
Extending the Article 50 negotiating time seems to be the most immediate fix. But it will only be useful if there is a realistic prospect of the EU reversing course and giving Theresa May the “assurances” she says she needs to win over ardent Brexiteers. (Sarah Collins)