Air routes maintained to the European Union, but without further intra-European stopovers, a 12-month equivalence for certain financial activities and a guaranteed status for British residents in legal situations in the Member States...
On Wednesday 19 December, the European Commission published fourteen measures with very concrete effects, including five proposals under the co-decision procedure, aimed at preparing the EU for an exit without the United Kingdom's agreement. Many of these measures require London to take reciprocal measures.
A Brexit without an agreement is indeed a hypothesis that gains in consistency less than 100 days before the planned exit by the country, on 29 March 2019, when the British Parliament has still not voted on the draft agreement for an orderly exit from the country (see EUROPE 12161).
Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis indicated that the measures in question were intended to avoid "major disruptions" in the event of Brexit without agreement in sensitive areas or sectors of activity. These include citizens' rights, transport (air or land), financial services, customs and climate policy. In addition, the PEACE and INTERREG programmes, which promote the anchoring of peace in Northern Ireland, have been made permanent.
The preparatory measures have been established within very specific parameters, Mr Dombrovskis said: they are not intended to replicate what is provided for in the withdrawal agreement approved at the end of November (see EUROPE 12145) or to reproduce the current situation where the United Kingdom is still a full member of the EU. They are time-limited and unilaterally adopted, and will also be implemented only if the British do the same on their side.
For the Commission, it is very clear that these contingency plans remain extremely "basic" and very minimalist, said one source, while some strong British Brexit supporters suggest that these contingency plans could be more beneficial to the country than a withdrawal with agreement.
Citizens' rights. As regards citizens' rights, in the event of Brexit without agreement, the rules on the rights of third-country citizens will apply to British nationals who settle in the EU from 30 March.
Assuming that the United Kingdom will offer the same protection to the three million European citizens already present on its territory, the Commission encourages Member States to be generous with British citizens legally residing on their territory. It calls on them to offer the British concerned resident status, including long-term resident status for those who have been present for at least five years and an appropriate work permit to avoid any interruption.
Temporary documents could be issued by the date of withdrawal, the idea being to have all final legal documents by the end of 2019.
The Commission also proposed in November that British citizens should be exempt from visa requirements to be in the EU (see EUROPE 12136). It hopes that the same will apply to Europeans legally present in the United Kingdom before 29 March 2019.
The European rules on social security coordination would also be valid (with related benefits) and applicable.
Transport. In the field of transport, the Commission has adopted two measures to avoid the total interruption of air traffic in the event of a 'hard Brexit'.
A proposal for a Regulation aims to guarantee the provision of certain air services between the United Kingdom and the EU for 12 months. And another proposal for a regulation aims to extend the validity of certain aviation safety licences for nine months.
But the United Kingdom should not be able to operate intra-European flights.
The Commission has also adopted a proposal for a regulation to allow UK operators to transport goods to the EU for nine months, provided that the United Kingdom grants equivalent rights to EU road hauliers and subject to the conditions of fair competition.
Financial services. With regard to financial services, in the event of Brexit without an agreement, the European passport currently available to British service providers will automatically lapse on 30 March 2019 for business segments that have not been the subject of an equivalence decision by the EU.
In order to preserve the financial stability of the EU Twenty-Seven, the Commission is prepared to grant temporary and conditional equivalence for a fixed period of time limited to 12 months for the central clearing of derivatives.
Another 24-month equivalence decision will aim to avoid disruption of central depositary services for EU operators currently passing through UK operators.
Two delegated regulations facilitating the novation, for a fixed period of twelve months, of certain OTC derivative contracts, for which a contract is transferred from a counterparty based in the United Kingdom to a counterparty based in the EU Twenty-Seven, are also proposed.
Customs. In the customs field, the European institution has adopted a delegated regulation which includes the seas surrounding the United Kingdom in the provisions on the time limits for lodging entry summary declarations and pre-departure declarations before entering or leaving the customs territory of the Union.
Another proposal for a Regulation aims to add the United Kingdom to the list of countries benefiting from a general export authorisation for dual-use items valid throughout the EU.
Member States will have to apply the Customs Code.
Climate. With regard to the fight against climate change, the Commission wants to preserve the proper functioning of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
It adopted a decision to temporarily suspend the allocation of free emission allowances, auctioning and international credit trading for the United Kingdom as of 1 January 2019.
An implementing decision was also taken to allow the allocation until the end of 2020 of appropriate annual allowances for British companies to access the EU Twenty-Seven market.
What about Ireland? Surprisingly, the cross-cutting communication adopted by the Commission on Wednesday says nothing about the return of a physical border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, in the event of a British withdrawal without agreement, or about the measures to protect against such a possibility.
The EU wants to avoid at all costs that this hypothesis materialises at the end of March 2019 and is still working on it. It has certainly already devised solutions within the framework of the orderly withdrawal agreement, with the creation of a safety net (‘backstop') if a free trade agreement is not adopted before the end of 2020. But it has not yet done so for a ‘no deal’ scenario.
Nor does the text say anything about Gibraltar, to which the measures unveiled on Wednesday will not apply, or about sectors such as the pharmaceutical industry. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)