The Twenty-seven are due to open a European Summit on Thursday 13 December in Brussels, full of uncertainties regarding the fate of the United Kingdom's orderly withdrawal from the EU and the ratification process of the negotiation approved on 25 November with Theresa May. They were also uncertain about the fate of the British leader herself, who was facing a vote of no confidence on Wednesday evening initiated by conservative MPs.
On Tuesday 11 December, they obtained the 48 signatures required to put into jeopardy her position as leader of the Tories and Prime Minister of the country, with the vote scheduled to take place between 8 p.m. and 10 p.m., Brussels time. Theresa May, according to the Financial Times, had also offered to resign by the next election, in order to gain support during this vote of no confidence and to be able to conclude the talks on the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration on future relations with the EU.
In any case, the Europeans did not want to comment on these internal political developments and instability on Wednesday, but they will be ready to listen to Mrs May on Thursday evening at the beginning of the Summit. If of course she remains Prime Minister, she will be invited to speak at the end of the first working session, on Thursday before dinner. Then, after the dinner of Twenty-eight, the Twenty-seven will discuss how to respond to Ms. May's requests, a senior diplomat said on Wednesday.
They will determine how to respond to any requests for reassurance she may submit, which will most likely relate to the fact that the backstop plan for Ireland should never be applied (which is what the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, keeps saying and what the withdrawal agreement provides for) and to the commitment of the Twenty-seven to negotiate the future free trade agreement as soon as possible (whose conclusion should make it possible not to use this backstop plan). But, just before the Summit, the concrete and legal form of these guarantees was also not very clear, as the Twenty-seven also had to decide whether these assurances would be put in writing in conclusions.
One thing is certain: it will be "impossible” for Ms. May to hope to change the content of the withdrawal agreement, which is no longer negotiable since it was jointly approved on November 25, the diplomat said, or even the content of the political declaration. "But everything else can be discussed"; however, like the withdrawal agreement, the text of the political declaration is “clear and, I think, legally binding”, said the diplomat. The Twenty-seven could nevertheless hear out Ms. May and what she has to say about the nature of this declaration.
In any case, nothing that could be given to Ms. May can "distort or change the backstop plan", said another diplomat. This warning had been sent these last days to Ms. May (see EUROPE 12157) and again on Wednesday by the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel.
Intensify preparation for the ‘no deal’
Nevertheless, the Twenty-seven will not close the door and will discuss possible help for the leader. But this European Summit will also be about preparing for a lack of agreement: the difficulties of ratification in the British Parliament (the vote of 11 December has already been postponed) increase the likelihood of an exit without an agreement, the diplomat reiterated. "There is therefore an obligation on the European side to intensify the preparation" for this scenario, the European Commission being responsible for this work.
Of course, there is another option: a request by the United Kingdom to extend Article 50 to avoid this exit without an agreement “which nobody wants”, says this diplomat. But "the question will also be: what is the purpose of this extension" and why is the United Kingdom asking for it? - added this second source. While there are no ideological obstacles to this extension, the Twenty-seven would close the door to an extension aimed at undoing the agreement reached on 25 November. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)