EU leaders are meeting at twenty-seven on Wednesday 17 October in Brussels for a dinner during which they will discuss the state of play of the negotiations with London, following a presentation by the EU's Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier.
However, the Twenty-Seven may not be able to reach an agreement with London. It will take "more time" to complete the agreement on the British withdrawal and, in particular, on the issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, Michel Barnier said on Tuesday 16 October in Luxembourg.
"We will spend the time calmly and seriously in the coming weeks to reach this agreement”, he said on his arrival at the General Affairs Council meeting on Brexit (‘Article 50’ format).
On Wednesday evening, British Prime Minister Theresa May will address her counterparts ahead of the opening of the summit as invited by European Council President Donald Tusk.
Prior to that, several bilateral meetings are expected to be held between some leaders and Ms May or between Ms May and President Tusk.
Without an expected breakthrough on the withdrawal agreement, the Twenty-Seven should "focus on procedure" and mention the possibility of holding an exceptional summit in November, a diplomat said. However, "this summit is not a foregone conclusion", he warned, and the Twenty-Seven will have to say what they want to do with this meeting, which could take place on 17 and 18 November.
In his letter of invitation sent to the Twenty-Seven on Monday evening, Mr Tusk vacillates in opinion. According to him, the scenario of a Brexit without agreement being "more likely than ever", preparations for it must be reinforced within the EU. At the same time, the President of the European Council considers that an agreement "always seems impossible until it is concluded".
On Tuesday, Mr Tusk had at any rate reiterated that the crux of the agreement remained the Irish issue and the backstop issue to avoid the return of a physical border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.
The Austrian Chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, at the Tripartite Social Summit, seemed to say that an agreement was within reach with Mrs May. "Then comes the question of support for the British Parliament”, he noted.
"In any case, there must be no physical border in Ireland", recalled another diplomat from a major Member State on Tuesday morning. "One solution would be to stay in a Customs Union for a while; some British ask that it be very limited in time”, he added.
This is precisely what the European side refuses to do, as it wants to ensure, above all, that there is a binding safety net in the British withdrawal agreement.
The discussion "will probably not be concluded by Wednesday evening”, said the diplomat, who remains confident, however.
For the EU, if it is possible to discuss a special customs arrangement for the United Kingdom, it is imperative that this safety net for Ireland be in place.
For the first diplomat mentioned above, there is still time and, therefore, still a possibility for the month of November. But since the Salzburg summit - a traumatic episode for Theresa May, who was attacked by critics once she returned to London (see EUROPE 12100 and 12101), "we have made progress" and we have "understood that it would not be easy to have an agreement", he warned.
One of Wednesday evening's messages could therefore be as follows: reaffirm the full confidence placed in Mr Barnier, who is negotiating an agreement on behalf of the EU in accordance with the mandate given to him, and intensify work to prepare for the scenario of an exit without an agreement. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic and Mathieu Solal)