On Sunday 8 April, Hungarian voters are renewing the 199 members of the Országgyűlés, the single chamber of the Hungarian Parliament. This is an election that will determine the retention of power of the prime minister and strong man of the Fidesz party, Viktor Orbán, whose anti-migrant and anti-George Soros (his historic rival) stances have created tension with the European level and, in particular, complicate work on reform of the asylum system.
Unsurprisingly, Orbán, who was in power between 1998 and 2002, and who has now been in power since 2010, is expected to win the election, according to recent polls. One of these polls, reported by Reuters on 4 April, credits Fidesz with 41% of the votes, a score that would enable him to obtain a comfortable two thirds majority (142 of the 199 seats). The nationalist party Jobbik would come second with 22 members, ahead of the socialists, with 19 seats. But a third of voters are reported still to be undecided.
How can the longevity of "illiberal democracy" in Hungary (as Orbán himself described it) be explained? For Catherine Horel, a researcher at CNRS, Orbán is a very "interesting" person to observe: he has gone from passionate anti-Soviet liberal at his political beginnings in 1989 to leader of a very right wing party. And he has done this with the adaptability and flexibility of a "chameleon", this historian specialising in 19th century history states.
Orbán is a perfect "cynic" who is only into electoral calculation, opportunistic stances and the personal exercise of power, Paul Gradvohl, a historian speicialising in contemporary central Europe, who was also contacted by EUROPE, states. In his view, "Orbán does not have real convictions". He added: "he was Catholic, he became Protestant (Ed: Calvinist). He was liberal, he went over to the EPP. He criticised the Russian action in Georgia in 2008, now he defends Putin". This "poses him no problem" and the fact that the rest of the political personnel in Hungary is made up of "subordinates" does the rest, the lecturer states.
Orbán, a native of Székesfehérvár, about 60 kilometres from Budapest, has indeed known how to fill the void, first on the right of the political spectrum. On this side, "there is no one else", Catherine Horel states.
The Hungarian prime minister also siphoned off the programme of the far-right Jobbik party, which he then marginalised. For Paul Gradvohl, the man indeed sends messages that are "as, if not still more, racist" than those of Jobbik. On the right, "he is ultra-dominant", Horel continues.
And on the left, the fragmentation of the political opposition is also to his advantage. The mistake was, according to Horel, of former prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsány, who remained entangled in a personal quarrel with Orbán and who, in not letting go of this personal battle, alienated the political opposition.
This attitude of "blame" has nevertheless produced a positive development. The socialist party has indeed allied with the Dialogue for Hungary (PM) party, a social-democrat and ecologist party, for which Gergely Karacsony is the candidate running for prime minister. This young 42-year old candidate could, in Horel's view, create a few surprises in terms of votes, even if its seems difficult to bet on victory.
A speech that suits the EPP?
For Catherine Horel, Orbán has nevertheless become rigid and "petrified" over his last two mandates, no longer managing "to reinvent himself". He could perhaps lose the absolute majority and "we can see that this makes him panic". Hence his violent diatribe, once again against immigration.
But the man has also understood how to touch the fibre of Hungarians. The theme of migrants against whom it is necessary to fight is a recent appearance and a total "hoax" according to Horel, as "there are hardly any migrants in the country" and as, apart from at the border with Serbia, very few Hungarians have seen any. But the rhetoric works in a country suffering from the fear of "disappearance", an anxiety that is very real in the Hungarian population, just as it is in part of the Hungarian elite who fear seeing their little country, their little language dissolve on contact with their big neighbours.
Orbán's speech also comes with an orientalist thrust, favouring goodwill with Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Is he, however, emulated in the rest of the EU? For Catherine Horel, these characteristics and fears of disappearance are far from being the privilege only of Hungary. The Poles, Czechs and Slovaks have not waited for Orbán to develop similar rhetoric. In Slovenia, too, small parties are developing on the theme of the loss of identity.
"This is the syndrome of small states in central Europe that feel threatened by their powerful neighbours", Horel states.
For Paul Gradvohl, Orbán's power of annoyance at the European level is nevertheless very real, even if the nature of his speech is found elsewhere, "among the French Republicans for example".
A concrete illustration of this influence is that, on the issue of the rule of law, Hungary has nipped in the bud the possibility of sanctions that was raised by the European Commission against Poland.
Orbán's ideas are also those of the European People's Party (EPP), his European Christian democrat party, which is, in the end, very happy, according to Gradvohl, that the strong man of Fidesz "says aloud what everyone thinks quietly".
In April 2017, the leaders of the EPP asked Orbán for explanations on his illiberal initiatives clashing with the European spirit, but this refocusing did not result in any concrete measure (see EUROPE 11778). (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)