Following the green light of the Congress of the Social Democrats in Bonn on Sunday, negotiations between the Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats CDU party, her allies in the CSU and the Social Democrats of (SPD) will formally launch this week with a view to putting together a coalition government by March.
The presidents of the three parties are expected to meet late afternoon on Monday to clarify the terms of the procedure. The aim is to reach an agreement by around 12 February. The government contract will then be submitted to a postal vote of SPD members, around 440,000 in number.
The fate of the fourth 'Merkel' government, therefore, is still in the hands of the Social Democrats. The forthcoming Franco-German document on the reform of the EMU, which has been announced for March, must also be prepared, with the German side of the work to be carried out by the caretaker government currently in place.
On Sunday evening, however, Merkel said she was satisfied that the door is now open to form a stable government in Germany. Although the joint document presented on 12 January of this year (see EUROPE 11938) is a starting point for negotiations, there are still many issues to be gone into in greater depth, she acknowledged.
“A manifesto for a European Germany”
During the Congress, the President of the SPD, Martin Schulz, laid emphasis on the progress pledged on Europe by the CDU and CSU. January’s pre-agreement is a “manifesto for a European Germany” and the end of a German European policy that mainly says ‘no’, he said. Now, there is a ‘yes’ to more investment, more employment rights. It is also, the former President of the European Parliament went on to say, a ‘yes’ to a European Monetary Fund that practises solidarity rather than austerity. A ‘yes’ to taxing Internet giants.
“This Europe will be more Social Democrat than it is today”, Schulz said, stressing that the pre-agreement would put an end to the austerity policy. However, time is of the essence and without the SPD, there will be no positive impetus in favour of Europe, he said.
On Twitter, the Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, welcomed the SPD’s sense of responsibility. He added that Europe needs engaged and constructive Social Democracy, acknowledging the need to convince the grassroots by moving forward in the coalition contract. His compatriot Pervenche Berès (S&D) feels that the toughest times are just starting for the SPD, which will have to find its place in the future grand coalition and remain true to itself. She went on to say that the most important themes will be European solidarity, the green transition and paying for it, and the fight against inequality.
A Chancellor of European renewal
The ‘European harvest’ planted by the SPD may, however, once again be gathered in by Chancellor Merkel, who has skilfully made use of the results of the current grand coalition during the election campaign.
Andrea Römmele, lecturer in politics at the Hertie School of Governance, predicts that after 12 years in power, she will try to leave her mark on history by positioning herself as the Chancellor of European renewal.
Rather than the flagging momentum of a leader who has been on the campaign trail for nearly a year, it was the dynamism of the head of the SPD group at the Bundestag, Andrea Nahles, who won over the delegates on Sunday. She pledged that the SPD would negotiate improvements in the future contract with the CDU and CSU until they were screaming in pain.
The hosting of refugees is reported to be one of the major challenges of the forthcoming discussions. The SPD members have still not digested the concessions made by their leaders in the pre-agreement. This document will limit the number of refugees under subsidiary protection of one year benefiting from family reunification to 1000 per month and will keep the balance of asylum seekers below a threshold of 220,000.
As things stand, the Conservatives are not shutting any doors. We can talk about anything and everything, the Minister President of Saxony, Michael Kretschmer, told Deutschlandfunk. However, “anybody trying to review each detail will end up reopening the whole package”, warned Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Minister President of Saarland, tipped as a possible successor to Merkel.
Winning just 56% of the votes in favour of coalition negotiations at the SPD Congress, the SPD leader’s position of weakness could be a tactical advantage against Merkel, observes Lucas Guttenberg, researcher at the Institut Delors in Berlin, adding: “he should be able to chalk something up on social insurance and the employment market”. (Original version in French by Nathalie Steiwer)