The emissions reduction trajectories of the parties to the Paris Agreement are not enough to meet the objectives of this universal agreement – either the target of 2°C or, consequently, the target of 1.5°C as an upper limit for the average increase of temperatures up to 2100.
Those attending COP 23, which was due to close in Bonn on Friday evening, are well aware of this and have started to flesh out the contributions on the table, which will collectively lead to more than 3°C. They are also aware that the increase in CO2 emissions observed in 2016 by scientists will continue. However, they have at least done the groundwork to clarify the terms of the implementation of the Paris Agreement and have agreed that the Paris working programme will be finalised in 2018. This is one of the main achievements of this COP, the first since the announcement of America’s withdrawal from this universal climate agreement.
2018 will be a year of facilitating dialogue – with the “Talanoa dialogue” aiming to lead to an increase in the national contributions determined in 2020, in view of the fact that an initial global progress report on the implementation of the contributions is to be carried out in 2023 as provided for by the Paris agreement.
As we were going to press, however, negotiations on this facilitating dialogue and on the financing of the climate action in favour of the developing countries were still ongoing. As the money is a particularly important factor in supporting the attenuation and adaptation efforts, the small island states and African countries were doing all in their power to ensure that the industrialised countries kept their promises (see other article).
Under the Paris agreement, this facilitating dialogue should not only make it possible to assess the progress made, but also to identify ways of increasing the financial resources provided, including for the development and transfer of technologies and reinforcing capabilities. This will make it possible to identify ways of increasing the level of ambition for all parties’ attenuation efforts.
“We have made sure that the Paris Agreement will be made operational, stated where the responsibilities lie and ensured that data on the respective efforts are comparable for the purposes of transparency. We have structured the dialogue, which will be institutionalised and carried out jointly by the Fijian Presidency and Poland. The documents will be approved in Kratowice” at COP 24, the German Federal environment Minister, Barbara Hendricks, announced on Friday afternoon.
In fact, this dialogue will be divided up into a preparatory phase and a political phase, but the developing countries have shown that they have made efforts to ensure that the information to be provided in this framework is sufficiently specific, concerning the implementation of the national determined contributions.
Speaking to the press, who asked her whether, by the time COP 24 comes round, Germany would still be a country of coal and lignite, Hendricks replied: “I am certain that the new government will say how Germany will move away from burning fossil fuels. This is part of our 2050 plan. I do not expect this to be achieved in 2030, but it is something we are looking at”.
“COP 24 will be the moment of truth, when everybody will have to show their hands, without waiting for the timetable set out in the Paris Agreement, to go higher with our ambitions and objectives of each”, summed up the French Minister, Nicolas Hulot, on the eve of the closing session. To reinforce the pre-2020 action, the parties have agreed to take stock on progress at COP 24 in Katowice, Poland, in 2018, and at COP 25.
The launch of the platform of local communities and native peoples and an action plan based on gender are two innovations to be chalked up to COP 23.
Progress on the structure of the facilitating dialogue 2018, the adoption of an initial action plan based on gender, getting the platform of local communities and native peoples up and running, the build-up and acceleration of the climate actions of the private sector and non-state players were the joint priorities of the EU and the group of 79 ACP (Africa/Caribbean/Pacific) countries. The outcome of the negotiations will determine their level of satisfaction. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)