On Friday 10 November, the EU's negotiator for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, Michel Barnier, gave his British opposite number, David Davis, a two-week deadline to provide the necessary clarifications on the three priority outstanding questions so that the EU can launch the second phase of Brexit negotiations on the future commercial relationship, at the European summit in mid-December.
If these commitments, particularly concerning the divorce settlement, are not forthcoming, Barnier will not be able to recommend that the 27 member states open the second stage of negotiations on the future relationship.
Very little major progress was noted at the latest round of talks on Brexit on Thursday 9 and Friday 10 November. However, discussions allowed some additional progress on citizens' rights and the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, with the identification of common principles on the common travel area or maintaining cooperation either side of the border, the two men reported.
But although the European Council of 19 and 20 October decided to start preparations for the second phase of talks (see EUROPE 11888), the EU negotiator appeared to be preparing his audience for the possibility that this will not in fact be the case.
With bad news piling up for no. 10 Downing Street, the British government must - within two weeks - both clarify how it plans to honour its financial commitments and suggest specific areas to avoid going back to a hard border between the two Irelands. If it fails to do so, the decision to start talks on the future partnership will not be made before the end of this year.
Ireland – another tricky issue
On Northern Ireland, the situation still seems complex. The Irish government, backed by the European Commission, is reported to be calling for Northern Ireland to remain in the customs union following Brexit, according to the English-language press. This would be the only way of avoiding a return to a border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK.
In Brussels on Friday, Davis said that a solution to the Irish question could not be found without starting the second phase of discussions. “We must make no mistake: a definitive solution can only be found in the framework of the future relationship”, he said. He also acknowledged the need to apply a single solution, reiterating London's intention for no internal borders to be created within the UK itself.
According to the Commission's report revealed by the press, in order to preserve the 1998 agreement that removed all physical borders from the island, the Brexit agreement must respect the integrity of the single market and customs union, to which the Republic belongs. Dublin wants the UK to continue to comply with a raft of European rules, for instance on customs and agriculture, to ensure that trade with Northern Ireland is preserved.
Brexit – Day 500
In general, Barnier called upon London to do all in its power to promote real and sincere progress in the negotiations. And if this is not the case, he warned, we will continue and delay discussions in the future by the same length of time, such as the free-trade agreement and the post-Brexit transition period called for by the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, in Florence (see EUROPE 11868).
Pointing out that 500 days have already passed since the British referendum of 23 June 2016 (see EUROPE 11580) and that there is the same amount to go until the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 at midnight “Brussels time”, Barnier once again called for the commitments made in the Florence speech, described by Brussels sources as constructive, to be translated into specific commitments.
Late in the day on Wednesday, the ambassadors of the 27 member states to the EU (Coreper 'article 50' format) referred to the preparation of technical discussions to look at the second phase. However, some of them voiced concerns at the pace of talks and the problems of reaching agreement on the second phase ahead of the December summit. The ambassadors therefore warned against hurrying through this internal work too quickly, instead recommending that it be informed by the progress in the negotiations.
According to a European source, there could be two or three further rounds of negotiations between now and the European summit of 14 and 15 December. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)