A new December deadline to move Brexit talks on from divorce to transition and trade is looking increasingly difficult to reach. While the UK continues to send confusing signals and the EU refuses to move on money, the two sides are still deadlocked.
There are only six full weeks to go before EU leaders are called on again to decide if there has been “sufficient” progress in Brexit talks.
But a week on from the October summit (see EUROPE 11888), and there has been no progress at all, not even on setting a date for the next round of talks.
The most likely date is the week of 13 November, but EU sources say talks cannot go ahead until there is more detail from the UK side on money.
British negotiators feel that UK Prime Minister Theresa May made concessions during her 22 September speech in Florence (see EUROPE 11868), when she promised to “honour commitments” made during the country’s EU membership and to cover payments to the current EU budget.
But the EU still requires more detail. Stefaan De Rynck, an adviser to EU leader negotiator Michel Barnier, captured the lack of trust between the two sides when he said this week the EU needs “a method to be able to reassure the 27 of the solidity of the UK’s guarantees”.
Back in the UK, ministers and MPs have been trading confusing positions on transition and trade, and fighting over whether and when the UK parliament would get to vote on the final Brexit deal.
May was forced to backtrack on Brexit minister David Davis’s comments this week that the UK parliament might not get a vote on the divorce deal until after the country’s EU exit in March 2019. She said she was “confident” a deal would be agreed in time for a vote.
She also said a transition deal will not be possible until a future trade deal is agreed, which the EU has said will not happen for years.
The confusion led Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to ask May to clarify her plans for the transition, telling the Financial Times she fears businesses will soon start implementing contingency plans that could damage the Scottish economy.
Analysts at the Eurasia Group think-tank now see a 35% chance that May will be ousted as leader, even if she secures a deal to open talks on transition and trade at the December summit. They also see a 10% chance of the Brexit talks breaking down.
While De Rynck admitted this week that the EU did not want the UK to crash out of the bloc without a deal, he said officials were “preparing for” the possibility. (Sarah Collins)