The mood may have improved but the first phase of Brexit talks is far from over.
European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has said it will take a miracle to move Brexit talks from divorce on to trade by the time EU leaders meet for a summit in Brussels on 19 October. “We will not have sufficient progress from now until October, unless miracles would happen,” he told reporters on Friday in Tallinn (see other news), a day after a fourth round of Brexit talks wound up (see EUROPE 11872).
MEPs are set to echo his assessment in a resolution to be voted on in Strasbourg on Tuesday, where they will urge EU leaders not to sign off on sufficient progress unless there is a “major breakthrough” in all three of the EU’s divorce priorities - citizens’ rights, Ireland and money (see EUROPE 11872).
The UK had hoped that, following concessions made in prime minister Theresa May’s speech in Florence last Friday (see EUROPE 11868), the EU would be willing to move forward. But a lack of real progress, in particular on money and Ireland - and on the role of EU courts - is blocking a deal.
Citizens
Two major concessions on citizens’ rights were welcomed by EU negotiators during a fourth round of talks in Brussels this week, and have helped to move the subject forward. First, the UK has pledged to interpret “EU law concepts” in line with European Court of Justice (ECJ) rulings. And it has promised to give the divorce deal “direct effect” in UK law, meaning citizens can apply directly to UK courts and the deal can’t be overturned by future UK parliaments.
The UK has also offered a guaranteed right of return to Europeans that are permanent UK residents, even if they are absent for more than two years (the period laid down in the EU free movement directive).
But the concessions have failed to satisfy the EU, which is maintaining its main red line: that the European Court of Justice remains responsible for overseeing the divorce deal. The EU side is also upset over the need for citizens to apply for “settled status” (and face criminality checks) in the UK post-Brexit, and on family reunification rights.
Differences also persist over UK citizens’ right to move around the EU post-Brexit, voting rights in EU elections, professional qualifications, posted workers, and access to benefits for the unemployed and those that leave the UK after Brexit.
Transition and trade
So, what does all this mean for Theresa May’s bid to move talks on to transition and trade? Well, nothing, for the moment.
EU negotiators, backed by all 27 leaders, are sticking to their two-phase approach, insisting the divorce deal makes more progress before moving on to transition or trade. Moreover, EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier, as he repeatedly admits, needs a revised mandate from EU leaders to even start discussing a transition deal.
UK prime minister Theresa May appealed directly to German chancellor Angela Merkel on the issue during a meeting in Tallinn on Friday, stressing that “it was in everybody’s interests to agree to a time-limited implementation period once Britain leaves the EU, to provide certainty to businesses and others”, a UK spokesperson said. Mrs May believes that her speech was a game-changer and should be “reciprocated in proposals that the EU will come forward with”.
But sources in Brussels say that while the atmosphere in the talks definitely improved this week, there was not enough concrete progress to move things forward. One insider described the fourth round of Brexit negotiations as a “clearing of the throats” but warned against getting “carried away that somehow we’re on the verge of the finishing line in any of these areas”, referring to the divorce issues of money, citizens and Ireland.
Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar said on Friday in Tallinn that there was “definitely a better vibe and a better mood” following the prime minister’s speech. But, according to Lithuanian president Dalia Gribauskaité, the EU and UK need to “be openly acknowledging to each other that the Brexit negotiations are out of schedule”. (Sarah Collins)