According to the latest short-term agricultural outlook (for 2017/2018) published by the European Commission on Wednesday 12 July, the heatwave in some countries, particularly Spain, will lead to lower cereal production in the EU.
The Commission says neither cereal production nor the 2017/2018 marketing year will be lower on average than in previous years. With an expected rise of 3.4 million tonnes on 2016/2017, total certain production in the EU is expected to reach 298 million tonnes.
The low cereal production will have a negative impact on EU exports and lead to a reduction in stocks, but the Commission says that ‘sufficient levels of global cereal production mean that prices are not expected to rise.’
EU oilseeds and protein crop production is expected to recover after two smaller-than-usual harvests (up to 38 million tonnes, i.e. 8% above last year). This is due to an increase in the area planted to a record high (nearly 13.7 million hectares), as well as a higher yield for colza (rapeseed oil) thanks to better weather conditions.
Rise in land planted with sugarbeet. At the end of September, the sugar-growing quotas will expire. This first year without sugar production quotas resulted in a significant increase of sugarbeet-planted area. EU white sugar production for 2017-18 is now forecast at 20.1 million tonnes, 20% above the 2016-17 level but a more modest 3% higher than 2014-15. The new sugar market observatory provides useful information about changes in the sugar sector.
The Commission says ‘Modest growth is expected in EU milk production, with sustained demand for dairy fat. EU meat exports are generally good, but pigmeat exports are expected to fall as a result of lower production and the consequent increase in prices.’ (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)