A new analysis of the clean development mechanism (CDM) published by the European Commission on Wednesday 19 April highlights the shortcomings in this, one of the flexible mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol granting carbon credits in return for clean investment in third countries. The CDM was due to end with the Paris climate agreement.
The study, carried out by Öko-Institut e.V. of Germany for the Commission, finds that 85% of projects covered in the analysis and 73% of the potential supply of CDM credits from 2013 to 2020 are unlikely to deliver “real, measurable and additional” emission reductions and, indeed, could lead to an increase in overall greenhouse gas emissions of over 3.5 billion tonnes of CO2, equivalent to almost 2 years of emissions in the EU emissions trading system (ETS).
The CDM ends with the Paris climate agreement but will form an important basis for the elaboration and design of future international crediting mechanisms. The study could also be used to assess the environmental integrity of other compliance offsetting mechanisms, its authors stress.
The NGO Carbon Market Watch is not surprised by this new findings. They “are another reminder that carbon offsetting has not worked as a reliable climate tool” and that “the CDM and the emissions shifting concept of offsetting are not fit for the climate challenges ahead” said Aki Kachi, Carbon Market Watch’s International Policy Director. He goes on argue that the Paris Agreement’s changed policy landscape calls for a new approach to international climate cooperation.
Carbon Market Watch warns that the most probable buyers of these CDM credits could be the aviation industry through its recently established offset market, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), adopted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The scheme intends to accept CDM and other UN credits that meet additional standards which ICAO aims to finalise this year (see EUROPE 11719 and 11635).
Carbon Market Watch stresses, therefore that, “to avoid greenwashing, aviation’s new offset market has to exclude credits that have not proven to be effective”.
The study is available online at the European Commission’s DG Climate Action website:
https://ec.europa.eu/climat/sites/clima/files/ets/docs/clean_dev_mechanism_en.pdf (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)