Brussels, 08/10/2013 (Agence Europe) - Two logics exist in the Mediterranean which are sought to determine the Mediterranean's energy future, and more broadly, the energy future of the world, because the Mediterranean region is rich in resources and is an important transit area. On the one hand, there is the producer logic (southern shore of the Mediterranean) and, on the other hand, there is the consumer logic (northern shore) which Abderrahmane Mebtoul from Algeria seeks “to federate”.
Speaking at a meeting in Paris on the prospects for Algeria's energy transition within the Euro-Mediterranean area, Mebtoul said that the whole Mediterranean, which represents 7% of the world's population and consumes around 8% of the global demand for primary energy, and the Mediterranean's geographical situation, make it an important crossroads for the world's energy markets. With the continuing domination of hydrocarbons in the energy mix, energy forecasts are for an increase of this interdependence in future years.
The risk of future turmoil should not be omitted from the picture as, among the Arab countries that have entered into revolution, there are important producer countries, with Libya in the lead, Mabtoul says. Added to this is a forecast for growth in consumption. With 492 million inhabitants, “the region can reach 582 million by 2030” but it is particularly on the northern shore where demand for energy will remain the strongest - “eight of the northern countries, members of the EU, together represent around 63% of demand” in the Mediterranean. “Their energy sectors are strongly influenced by EU directives and regulations which govern their energy markets and set obligatory targets”.
“Faced with the depletion of fossil fuels, no solution for a replacement has yet been found”, Mabtoul said, stating that “no baseline scenario considers renewable energy and the introduction of nuclear energy for some southern-Mediterranean countries as being enough to meet the demand. This bodes for a world where energy will become ever more expensive.”
Cooperation still seems risky to Mebtoul, and with regard to the big plans for electricity interconnection he believes that it is “still too early to determine how the political changes and governance in certain countries, like Egypt and Libya, will influence energy issues, and efforts to reduce subsidies and to strengthen infrastructure”. He concluded that “the expansion of trade markets that are open to investors would have a significant impact on the energy landscape in years to come”. (FB/transl.fl)