Brussels, 18/03/2013 (Agence Europe) - The total cereals production of the European Union is expected to be 286.6 million tonnes, or an increase of 5.6% compared to the 2012 harvest, according to initial forecasts of the cereals harvest 2013 presented by the Commission to the management committee of the EU on 28 February 2013.
Including the cereals harvest of Croatia (3.5 million tonnes, or around 1% of the production of the EU27), total cereals production for the EU-28 is expected to be 291.1 million tonnes. This increase is expected to “ease the EU's balance sheet compared to the situation of the growing year underway, particularly the end of year stocks”, said the services of Agriculture Commissioner Dacian Ciolos. The total area of land given over to cereals production in the EU27 in 2013 is likely to be 56.9 million hectares, an increase of 0.2% on 2012. Taking into account the cereals growing area of Croatia (596,000 hectares, or also around 1% of the area of the EU-27), total cereals area for the EU28 is 57.5 million hectares.
The fact that prices have remained high on the global market since June 2012 has encouraged European farmers to grow more soft wheat. The estimated yield is 5.1 tonnes per hectare for the whole of the EU. With the exception of the United Kingdom, which has been affected by heavy rainfall, growing conditions for winter cereals have been satisfactory, according to the Commission. In addition, no major damage due to frost has been reported so far.
For its part, COPA-COGECA states that the estimates for 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 show that soft wheat production is likely to increase by 3.7% compared to the levels of recent years. However, poor climate conditions over the sowing period are likely to have a serious impact on crop yields, COPA-COGECA warns. According to a COPA-COCEGA expert, soft wheat production is likely to rise from 122.4 million tonnes in 2012/2013 to 127 million tonnes in 2013/2014. He went on to forecast that total wheat production would rise by 3.3%. For the first time, the area planted with barley is expected to increase, by 1%, but production is likely to be limited to 53.7 million tonnes. COPA-COGECA anticipates an increase of 1.9% in cereals production in the EU, to 278.5 million tonnes in 2013/2014, compared to 273 million in 2012/2013. COPA-COGECA also states that stock levels of cereals are likely to stay low until the end of the season.
Oilseed crops. COPA-COGECA's forecasts for oilseed crops show that the total production of oilseed crops in the EU27 reached 27.2 million tonnes in 2012/2013, and is likely to increase by 8.5% for the growing year 2013-2014, bringing it to 29.5 million tonnes. The production of oilseed rape in the EU27 is likely to increase by 7.6%, from 19.56 to 21 million tonnes. These figures should, however, be treated with caution, due to the variability of climate conditions, COPA-COGECA states. A number of farms have complained about poor weather conditions and excessive rainfall during the sowing season, which have had a negative impact on their crops, in terms both of production and quality. Given current low temperatures, frost could also have serious negative consequences on crops in certain countries of northern Europe. In the south of Europe, abundant rainfall delayed the planting season for sunflowers. This factor could affect the potential yield for the 2013 harvest. Furthermore, after two consecutive years of winter frost damage, COPA-COGECA laments the falling availability of seeds for varieties of spring oilseed crops, and calls for a better availability of seeds.
Bee health. COPA-COGECA also voiced concern over possible restrictions (to save bees) in the practice of treating seeds with neonicotinoids (see EUROPE of Saturday 15 March). “Any restrictions are likely to have a severe impact on oilseeds production in the EU, making the EU more dependent on imports which would be disastrous given the tight world market situation for vegetable proteins. It would also hit the EU livestock sector badly which is heavily dependent on it for feed”, states COPA-COGECA. (LC/transl.fl)