Clarifying reality. The information on the Greek situation is, in my view, partially biased and the conduct of eurozone leaders has been shown in an artificially bad light. Some inaccuracies are regularly repeated as if somehow, by dint of repetition, they will become the truth.
An example to illustrate this point: it was the EU that, at the time, rejected Greece's plan to hold a referendum allowing the people their say on whether or not to agree to the reciprocal commitments on their country's recovery. What nonsense and misinformation is currently put out on this episode, even by well-known commentators! I followed events very closely and I clearly remember: the Greek government was to subscribe to the reciprocal commitments on the measures to be taken; thereafter it was to seek the people's view in a referendum. No objections were raised by the EU. The funding would, of course, only have begun once the result of the referendum was known. The Greek government ruled this out: it wanted the financial support immediately. How could the eurozone leaders and the IMF begin payments before Greece had pledged to stick to the agreed plan? The Greek authorities gave up on the referendum idea. It was never rejected by Brussels!
That is only by way of illustration. Let us turn now to the current situation. There is a majority in the Greek parliament in favour of remaining in the euro, thanks to the 50 additional seats gained by the party which finished first with 29.7% of the vote. These additional seats gave New Democracy 129 of the 300 seats and allowed it to form a governing coalition with its allies. Analysis shows, however, that 55% of the electorate voted for parties which oppose the memorandum establishing the conditions attached to EU and IMF funding. It is true that the Greeks made a clear choice, but it was against austerity, summarised a local commentator. According to unofficial sources, the eurozone authorities are prepared to come and go on the levels of interest on the funding and on relaxing some deadlines. The economic objectives and the reforms remain, however, inviolable. The position adopted by those in charge of the single currency is, rightly and properly, quite firm, as they (almost) all have to keep a very close eye on expenditure (see this column in EUROPE 10637).
Who benefits from the cost of the Greek crisis? If the efforts of the eurozone and the IMF helped the ordinary Greek citizens, that would at least be some justification. But it is not the case. In some member states, the calculation has been made of how much each Greek citizen has already received, but this is an entirely artificial calculation. It naturally made an impression on opinion in Germany and elsewhere, but the average Greek was dumbfounded by it. The journalist Maroun Labaki, the special envoy for Belgian daily Le Soir, reported the comments of his Athens taxi driver: “Where's the money from the European Union? I certainly haven't seen any.” The sad truth of the matter is that the billions that this episode is costing are being swallowed up by bad management and by the huge delays in the reforms - and also and above all by international financial speculation. This is equally so well beyond Greece.
I continue to be of the opinion that Greece will, when the time comes, spend a period outside the eurozone, and that the continuation of the current situation is needed to create the best possible conditions for this exit. It is a preparatory phase that could go on for some months.
Greece will, of course, not only remain a member of the EU, it will also receive additional support and aid, and its ultimate return to the eurozone will not be in doubt.
EU actively preparing. The EU is, in the meantime, continuing and increasing its reforms and is giving itself the armoury that will allow it to deal effectively with financial speculation, including from the financial centres of New York (the country which lectured Europe) and London (a member state). Community authorities at last argued their corner very strongly at the G20 meeting (see EUROPE yesterday) and the institutions of the eurozone and the EU as a whole are working tirelessly to give themselves the necessary instruments to tackle speculation. The financial transaction tax (in those member states which wish to participate, if unanimity cannot be reached), reform of rating agencies and deeper integration of the Community as a whole are now being pursued determinedly and with political vision.
It sometimes takes a long time for these projects to become reality and the impact is not always immediate. However, the foundations must be laid at the Summit at the end of the month.
(FR/transl.rt)