BRIC countries affected by slower growth in West. The economic difficulties in Europe and weak growth in the US have had repercussions on the economic performance of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), according to newspaper, Les Echos. Brazil: due to the brutal slowdown during the third quarter, where there was no growth compared to the previous three months and despite a rebound in the fourth quarter, growth did not go above the 3% mark in 2011, even though Brazil has until now often experienced growth rates of 5% and even reached 7.5% in 2010. Brazilian industry has been particularly hard-hit over the past two years by the strength of its currency, the Real, and the country has also been made more vulnerable by the difficulties experienced by its western partners and the subsequent effect on its iron, meat and soya exports. Brazil is hoping to bounce back in 2012 thanks to tax cuts and falling interest rates. Most recent forecasts suggest growth of between 3% and 3.5%. Russia: Russian GDP may fall slightly this year but it will remain much more robust than those of EU economies. After a very satisfactory 2011 (4.1% growth), 2012 looks like growth may fall with IMF forecasts in January estimating it at 3.4%. Russia is vulnerable to a possible fall in oil prices, following stagnation in Western countries, given that most of its revenue comes from exports of hydrocarbons. Investor confidence and particularly household confidence remains high, however, with an increase of more than 30% over the past 12 months in consumer borrowing. Russian growth, however, is rather lacklustre when compared to the results from the other major developing countries like China and India, due to the lack of structural reforms needed to boost Russian business. India: Indian growth could fall below the 7% threshold in the 2011-2012 budgetary year (which runs to the end of March) to around 6.9%, as opposed to 8.4% during the previous tax year. According to official forecasts, industry is currently growing by 3.9%, as opposed to 7.6% last year. Growth in the mining sector has fallen by 2.2%, following growth of 5% a year ago and agriculture is expected to register growth of only 2.5%, as opposed to last year's 7%. Political crisis and domestic problems (high interest rates, poor infrastructure), combined with a global slowdown have helped dampen optimistic forecasts (growth forecasts of 9% last year). The situation is having repercussions on the confidence of business leaders, the confidence index falling to 48.6% in the final quarter of 2011, as opposed to 66.2% a year ago. China: in 2009 and 2010 China demonstrated its capacity to resist the international crisis but this time it has been affected by the new recession in developed countries and will see its growth slowing down. As a sign of things to come: imports fell by 15.3% over a 12-month period and exports fell by 0.5%. The IMF believes that if there is a far-reaching crisis in the West, Chinese growth could fall to 4% instead of the expected 8.2%. China's weakness is its dependence of its economy on exports. Nonetheless, it possesses all the instruments necessary to support the economy, with a relatively restrictive monetary policy and a reasonable level of public debt. Inflation, however, will need to be corrected. (IL/transl.fl)