Accession has been shelved. The scenario of Turkey's accession to the EU played no part in the election campaign which led to a landslide success for Recep Tayyip Erdogan: this was confirmed by foreign observers and local sources of information. All that Mr Erdogan did was to announce his intention of giving the person responsible for this dossier (who is currently Secretary of State) Minister status; he went no further than this purely formal gesture. On the European side, Mr Van Rompuy, Mr Barroso and Mr Buzek referred to the accession negotiations in their official congratulations, as you would expect, but their emphasis was on the internal changes Turkey must make in order to resume talks which are at total stalemate. This was the obligatory minimum: on the Turkish side, for tactical reasons, to call for compensation if accession fails; for the Europeans, out of institutional duty.
The reactions of the few information sources which did not fully neglect this aspect were quite different. I retain as a symbol of the general attitude a headline which basically said: a happy Turkey bids Europe adieu. The think tank ECFR has just published nine studies, which basically conclude that: Turkey is no longer the same country which was once knocking on the door of the EU; it has built its own foreign policy, which it runs with authority in every direction; its economic growth rate is highly positive, far and away above that of any country of the EU; its businesses are gradually making themselves known, even on distant continents such as Latin America, not to mention Africa, where Turkey now plays a leading role. In his first declaration following the elections, Mr Erdogan said: “I am extremely proud to say that Turkey has become a model of democracy in the region”.
Turkey's new role in the world. How can we be anything other than pleased at the above developments? I am well aware that the position of this section, which is against Turkey's accession to the EU, has often been seen or misrepresented as an anti-Turkish attitude, but it is based firmly on the following factual considerations: geographical considerations (Turkey is essentially an Asian country); institutional considerations (Turkey's democratic weight would have the effect of unbalancing the functioning of the EU institutions); economic considerations (the common agricultural policy would become unmanageable and many European regions would lose the support of the cohesion policy); political considerations (the EU would find itself directly involved in issues which are nothing to do with it, such as the Kurdish issue). But I have often admired the attitude of the Turkish cultural world and its universities, which have always been open, to the point of inviting me to come and address their students. I also admire the progress Turkey has made in so many areas and congratulate it on its growing world role, particularly as it is taking pains to hold itself up as a model of democracy.
Orientations for the future. I believe, however, that in the future, everything would be much easier (and more efficient, more to the point) if the scenario of accession to the EU was abandoned and both sides devoted their efforts to stepping up and improving what already exists and what has already achieved the unprecedented level of customs union. Instead of the absurd effort, which is doomed to failure in any case, to get Turkey to introduce and apply all aspects of all Community rules, we should build our friendship and cooperation on foundations which both sides can accept, including: the Cyprus problem (Turkey militarily occupies part of the Community territory!); the central issue of common trade policy (Turkey must apply it without being involved in its drafting or management); Turkish citizens entering the Schengen zone. These are just a few significant examples.
Positive results in these areas would constitute the foundation for overall friendship and collaboration, keeping in place the autonomy of both sides in areas in which each side has specific responsibilities and interests. To give you a few examples, with no claims at exhaustiveness: on Turkey's side, the freedom of movement and of initiative in the main elements of its foreign policy; the Kurdish issue; religious freedom; on the EU's side, the gradual definition and application of a common foreign and defence policy; the management of the single currency and centralised “economic governance”; keeping in place the agricultural policy and cohesion policy; joint control of illegal immigrants on the Greek border.
The orientation I have described is, I believe, so obvious that it seems to me unthinkable that any institution, member state or political party could choose not to promote it. We need to look ahead!
(F.R./transl.fl)