Dream begins to fade. The “Arab Spring” will not lead to the birth of a large group of free and democratic republics. Tunisia, alone, is clearly going in this direction. It is still perhaps possible for Egypt, while it would be rash to make any forecasts about Libya. There will not be any genuine regime changes elsewhere in the region, except for some partial concessions at the very most. Many conflicts still persist and Amnesty International has sounded the alarm (EUROPE 10363) and is concerned about the direction of certain developments. In the context of Libya, Amnesty International has pointed out that, in a civil war, “there are always human rights violations and manipulation by both sides”. With regard to Egypt, it raises questions concerning two different aspects: women have been completely left on the sidelines, “although hundreds of thousands of them protested in the street” and preparation for the transition to democracy is totally in the hands of the army. Some of the young people are already opposed to the way things are developing.
There is now only Tunisia, although preparations for the elections on 24 July are causing some consternation to the authorities. Yadh Ben Achour, the president of the High Instance and in charge of setting up the Constituent Assembly, explained that, “it is an immense task. The list of voters will need redoing (until now, even the dead have been voting), identity cards will need updating, 2000 voter registration offices will need to be organised, which involves training 4000 people. Given that it will be necessary to organise 7000 voting stations, with a president and two assessment agents, another 21,000 people will need to be trained. This operation will cost around €20 million. We are walking on a tightrope”.
What does this message really mean? Preparing the ground for postponing the 24 July elections? Launching an appeal for specific financial support? Is it a way of first of all justifying refusal, and then reticence, to allow the thousands of young people who have gone to the EU to return to Tunisia when they realise that they have no chance of obtaining the right of asylum - in the knowledge that this is provoking a crisis in the EU and threatening the way the Schengen area operates? We will soon find out but these difficulties are not expected to compromise the birth of a free and democratic Tunisia.
Positive effects nonetheless. What should be said, however, about the situation in countries such as Syria and other states in the Arab Peninsula, where the authorities are in open conflict with the local “revolutionaries”? How should the developments in the horrendous war in Libya be interpreted? In the event of a war, the Community institutions do not have the power to take operational decisions. The Lisbon Treaty paves the way to this becoming a possibility but it has still not yet been made into a practical option; military decisions are inter-governmental, each member state acts as it sees fit and the criticism directed towards the EU as it now stands, are way off target.
Overall, even if the geographical scale of the genuine Arab Spring is beginning to shrink, the movement as such remains largely positive because it involves almost all the different Arab countries. The goals are very different but even the countries that do not intend to introduce any regime change and those where transformation will be very slight, will have shifted towards more freedom and justice.
Let's not, however, have any illusions about it: real revolution with regime change will continue to be an exception to the rule. Equality between men and women, effective religious freedom, a secular-based state and freedom of information will be principles that will make progress but they will not be introduced everywhere, far from it. For the time being, only Tunisia appears to be clearly orientated towards a real revolution. We can only hope that the country will confirm this in practice and that it will not remain a unique example.
If Tunisia recovers what belongs to it… This is the headline of an investigation published in Le Monde last Saturday. “Tunisia is trying to calculate the fortune amassed by the former dictator Ben Ali and his clan. It could reach $10 billion, the equivalent of the country's debt”. This is a doubly positive observation, which opens the way to recovering at least part of what had been stolen and confirms that the foundations of a viable economy exist because future revenue could be similar to that of the past but this time it would be to the benefit of all. If a free and democratic Tunisia were able to recover the wealth that belongs to it, it would prove much more effective than refusing to accept the return of the young illegal immigrants who are unable to benefit from the right of asylum in Europe. The French minister for foreign affairs has said: “Illegal immigration is unacceptable and is a scourge for both you and us. Nevertheless, France is not a hermetically sealed fortress to legal immigration”. Projects for taking in young Tunisians are currently being examined by the European Commission and it should not be forgotten that financial support from the EU to Tunisia is subject to compliance with mutual cooperation rules. Positive prospects still exist. (F.R./trans.fl)