Brussels, 03/03/2011 (Agence Europe) - How does one envisage stock-farming of the future when world demand for food is to surge 70% by 2050? That is the subject of the research project launched on Tuesday 1st March by a group of research institutes from Europe, Brazil and Africa. A total of 25 public and private partners are taking part in the project to be conducted over four years and co-financed by the European Commission (DG Research). The institutes of 12 EU countries are involved in the project, as well as Tunisia, Turkey, Senegal, South Africa, Kenya, Brazil and New Zealand, together with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
The AnimalChange project aims, in relation to climatic, economic, energy and agriculture parameters, to determine the characteristics of future husbandry systems, a press release explains. In practice, this means those taking part in AnimalChange will develop a series of scenarios, and biophysical and socio-economic models that they will involve in the experiment, thus allowing them to explore future scenarios for the husbandry sector as well as for the incidence of atmospheric CO2.
Taking into consideration the fact that policies set in place at present to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) will prove insufficient, as underlined by the INRA (Institut national de recherché agronomique) which is to coordinate the work, AnimalChange will above all propose systems for the sustainable development of stock-farming in Europe, North- and Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America. Meat production could double (from 229 million tonnes in the year 2000 to 470 million in 2050) and milk production could increase from 580 to 1,043 million tonnes, INRA suggests. Given that the rise in meat production will above all take place in developing countries (African countries for example), or in transition economies (like Brazil), INRA sounds a note of caution, stating that it will be necessary to set strategies in place to reduce GGE emissions without causing economic, social or environmental damage.
Animal farming is currently responsible for 37% of methane emissions, 65% of nitrogen dioxide emissions and 9% of carbon dioxide emissions, INRA points out. The agronomy institute believes it is urgent to better understand how public policies implemented on energy, climate or agriculture can affect the links between climate and stock-farming. The next assessment report from the intergovernmental group of experts on the evolution of climate (GIEC) is expected in 2013. (L.C./transl.jl)