One of the world powers. How much does Turkey really believe in joining the EU? At the end of last week its political authorities learnt to what extent France is remaining firm and definitively in favour of a strengthened partnership (Mr Sarkozy said so). Over the days that followed, Germany confirmed the same position. The Turkish authorities are also aware that, in any case, an accession treaty would be rejected in the obligatory referendum in France. Above all, their country is currently playing an increasing and autonomous role at an international level. Prime Minister Erdogan declared to his fellow citizens living in Germany that the Turkish Republic would be one of the 10 major world superpowers when it celebrates its 100th anniversary in 2023.
Recent developments. I consider that the Turkish authorities are aware of the situation and the official maintaining of their candidacy is essentially part of the tactical endgame: obtaining the most advantageous formula possible from a political, economic and budgetary point of view. It is true that the EU has kept accession negotiations in hibernation for a long time and has refused to tackle the most important chapters. It is true also that at the same time, Turkey is prolonging and accentuating several unacceptable positions, such as its military occupation of a portion of Community territory in Cyprus (significantly modifying the latter's ethnic make-up) and is not respecting a number of provisions in the customs union with the EU (a system that as a whole is being correctly applied and respected). I do not though intend to go over the reasons why this column has, for a long time, considered Turkish accession as a political error, a geographical misnomer, an economic absurdity and (for cohesion policy and EU agricultural policy) a budgetary disaster. Today, I will restrict myself to a few considerations about recent developments.
International player. The first observation involves Turkey's increasing role in the events that are currently transforming the political landscape of Mediterranean Arab countries. In the past, Turkey committed similar mistakes to those made by EU countries (for example, in November 2010, Mr Erdogan was awarded the “Gaddafi prize” for human rights, in Tripoli). At the current time, however, it is often considered as a model for new embryonic democracies, its role in the Arab world has been strengthened and its initiatives can have positive effects. Turkey in action, however, is not generally considered as a future member of the EU but rather as a developing world power, which indeed closely corresponds to what the French president said in Ankara, when he described Turkey as a model and “crucial player on the international scene”. The way in which the Turkish government has gradually been able to control the army and impose civil power has also been very instructive. Nonetheless, let's not forget Turkey's autonomous character is also expressed in other contexts, such as its role as intermediary with the Iranian authorities. Ayatollah Khomeiny praised “Turkey's independence from the West”, a quality that does not exactly represent the essential characteristic of an EU member state. We may also recall that the Turkish government signed free trade agreements with Iraq and Lebanon, which are incompatible with commitments for applying EU trade policy. Certain other Euro-Turkish negotiations that are ongoing (such as the one on the readmission of illegal immigrants and visas) already give the impression that an alternative to accession is developing.
Even Mr Van Rompuy… A parallel orientation is also developing at the European Parliament. Several indications suggest that this institution is increasingly oriented to the hypothesis of relations with Turkey indeed being very close but not necessarily denoting accession. And what should be said about the position taken last January by the president of the European Council? Indeed Mr Van Rompuy said that they should continue to negotiate and that a chance existed for “making progress this year”. Nevertheless, he added that the EU should “develop a close partnership with Turkey even before the results of accession negotiations are known” (EUROPE 10294).
A legitimate tactic. I consider that Turkey is already acting as if it was aware that accession will never become a reality and that it has clearly decided to obtain as many advantages as possible under an alternative formula. This is both understandable and legitimate. The Arab world shares the same impression. Amr Moussa, the secretary general of the Arab League until the end of the month (and a likely candidate for the Egyptian presidency) described Turkey as “a member of the great family of Middle Eastern nations”. In my opinion, this definition is quite correct and will increasingly become more appropriate. (F.R./transl.fl)