Brussels, 02/11/2010 (Agence Europe) - The Croatian government hopes that the restricted revision of the Lisbon Treaty, which last week's European Council agreed on (see EUROPE 10247) to put in place a permanent crisis management mechanism for euro area countries, will have no negative effect on the timetable for Croatia's accession to the EU. Although nothing has so far been decided on the practical arrangements for amending the treaty (Ed: Herman Van Rompuy is due to report to December's European Council which will then decide on how to proceed), the matter will in all likelihood linked to Croatia's accession. Amendment of Article 122 of the treaty to make the euro area crisis mechanism permanent (without affecting Article 125's “no bail out”) could be introduced in the Croatian accession treaty which, no matter what, will have to be ratified by the parliaments of all member states.
Two further amendments to the treaty - both highly politically sensitive - are already in the queue awaiting ratification along with Croatia's accession treaty: - the “guarantees” given by the European Council to Ireland in June 2009 so that the government there could hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty; the other member states promised Dublin that these guarantees, which confirmed Irish military neutrality, the ban on abortion in Ireland, the unanimity rule on tax matters and the right of each country to have a European commissioner would, at the next amendment of the treaty, be made into a - legally binding - protocol to be appended to the treaty; - the derogation to the European Charter of Fundamental Rights that the European Council had to grant the Czech Republic in October 2009 in exchange for President Vaclav Klaus's signing of the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty; this derogation will also take the form of a protocol to the treaty. Finally, in the event of Iceland's being able to complete its negotiations in time (talks only began in July of this year), its accession treaty could also become part of this same broad ratification “package”.
1 January 2013: deadline for accession? The Croatian government has no objection in principle to simultaneous ratification of its accession treaty and amendment of the treaty but stresses that the process of ratifying its accession treaty must not be delayed unnecessarily, for example, to wait for discussions on the crisis mechanism to be completed. Up until now, Croatia has closed 22 of the 35 chapters to be negotiated. This Friday, 5 November, at a further negotiation meeting in Brussels, Croatia is expected to be in a position to be able to close three more chapters: free movement of capital, transport policy and institutions. It hopes to close four further chapters before the end of the year, the CFSP, environment, justice/liberty/security and either fisheries or agriculture. The final closures of chapters (including the difficult freedom and fundamental rights, competition, and budget) are scheduled for March 2011. This, the Croatian authorities say, should mean that the accession treaty could be signed before the end of the Hungarian Presidency, that is to say, before the end of June 2011. The Croatian referendum on accession would have to take place within 30 days of the treaty being signed. Then the ratification process in the 27 member states could begin in course of the summer 2011. The ratification process would probably be completed around autumn 2012, which would mean that Croatia could be looking at accession on 1 January 2013.
This date is within six months of the deadline set by the European Council for the new permanent euro area crisis management mechanism to come into effect as the current mechanism, agreed in May 2010 (see EUROPE 10137), will expire after three years, that is, in the first half of 2013. By putting the permanent crisis management mechanism into the same “ratification basket” as Croatia's accession treaty (and the Irish and Czech matters), the EU has, in a way, provided Zagreb with a target date - the start of 2013 - for joining the Union. This is something that the EU usually avoids doing. (H.B./transl.rt)