Brussels, 06/04/2009 (Agence Europe) - The conclusion of the Doha Round was presented, at the G20, as the solution to combat protectionism. However, the latest simulations of the "Momagri" model (Momagri is the name of a French think tank set up in 2005: see http://www.momagri.org ) show that an unregulated liberalisation of agriculture would, over the next 15 years, lead to: - a dramatic drop in the turnovers of farmers in the poorest countries (-60%); - an ongoing reduction in revenues in the importer emerging countries (China and India, -30% to -40%); - and a downward trend in developed countries (with troughs of -30% over several years). In fact, only the exporting emerging countries, such as Brazil, would come out of it well.
The result? "An upheaval in the global equilibrium principally translating into the impoverishment- or even disappearance - of agricultural economies in countries with the highest population growth", explains Momagri. Europe and the United States will experience massive job losses in agriculture and the agro-food industry, which could spell disaster for food safety in Europe.
Who stands to gain from this? Investment funds which buy up millions of hectares, mostly in Africa, because they can take full advantage of the reduction in customs barriers. Momagri asks: can we take the risk of the future of world agriculture suffering the same destiny as that of the financial markets?
In conclusion, what we need, argues Momagri, is "global governance agriculture" to promote the objective of food safety within a regulated market. (L.C./transl.fl)