Certainties and confusion. The EU will meet its commitments to the Balkan states. But their accession to the EU remains conditional on meeting long set out requirements: alignment of enlargement and deeper European integration; compliance by applicant countries with binding conditions (see this column in yesterday's newsletter). The EU will, in any event, remain active in the region, in the spirit of solidarity and neighbourhood, for reasons effectively summarised by European Commissioner Olli Rehn: shared destinies, the political stability of the region, and so forth. The Balkan countries are essential to the EU from all points of view. Mr Rehn announced that the EU is to make early payment of part of its financial assistance, focussing on support for small and medium-sized enterprises and infrastructure projects. It would seem obvious to me that these plans will be realised, even though the accessions do not take place within the expected timetables.
The calls for caution from Elmar Brok and those who share his point of view are not, in any way, an expression of reticence with regard to the action taken by the EU in the region. On the contrary, Mr Brok has always advocated enhancing, deepening and strengthening Community presence. But are rapid accessions the best way, and does political pressure for this not risk having the opposite effect to the desired objective, to the detriment of both the countries concerned and the EU itself? There is no point in speaking about the internal EU aspects: the uncertainty surrounding the Lisbon Treaty has deprived the EU of the needed institutional innovation, and its capacity to accept new member states is, for the moment, non-existent, if integration objectives are to be maintained.
In favour of Serbia. For the most part, the Balkan states are still far from meeting the conditions necessary for accession. The exception is Croatia, which could conclude negotiations in early 2010. Serbia could reach a similar position quite quickly, but it is being held at arm's length (refusal of applicant country status, suspension of stabilisation and association agreement's coming into force) for reasons which, in my opinion, are not valid. What have young Serbs, who see themselves as - and who are - pro-European, to do with old war crimes of which they are often know nothing? Let the justice system continue to act on these crimes, without their being any impediment to the aspirations of the new generations! Serbian President Boris Tadic has even gone as far as to open up a reasonable solution to the Kosovo problem: if all other options fail, he would be prepared to consider the independence of Kosovo in exchange for the return to Serbia of that part of Kosovan territory where Serbs form the majority. The situation is sufficiently ripe for progress to be made on the Serbian case.
Essential thoughts. However, other countries of the former Yugoslavia do not seem to have understood that their accession to the EU presupposes that they will have first resolved their differences. At the top of the problems to be resolved, the European Commission still puts corruption and organised crime. It is probably correct, but it could also be asked if, in certain cases, the very logic of the way in which some of the new states came into being does not give cause for some confusion. Are ethnic mixes always the most appropriate way to lasting peace? The situations in Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia provide reason enough for questions before they are given any tangible prospect of EU accession.
It is up to the peoples themselves to make their choice, but the EU must not inherit their internal quarrels which prolong uncertainty and do not bode well for future stability. The task for these countries is difficult, but not any more so than that of the six countries of the first European Community (ECSC) in the 1950s.
Moreover, unanimity within the EU would, in some instances, seem somewhat artificial. How can we ignore the fact that Kosovo's independence has not been recognised by some member states, including Spain?
This summary, and necessarily approximate, overview has not dealt with Turkey. This column will provide some thoughts on this very specific case tomorrow. (F.R./transl.rt)