Something's shifting in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty. Political leaders have analysed the situation and are rethinking a new innovative and courageous procedure, in respect of democratic legality. I will therefore pursue the reflection I began in EUROPE 9738 and take into consideration the indications on developments in Dublin published in the same bulletin.
The positive starting point is represented by: a very large majority of Irish (80% as opposed to 8%) in favour of their country belonging to the EU; the conviction that European construction is positive for Ireland (this is even the majority opinion of those who voted no in the referendum); recognition of responsibility for the public's lack of understanding of the real content of the Lisbon Treaty (they failed to respond effectively to the lies of the Eurosceptics about the reality of this Treaty); the perplexities about the democratic character of a referendum on a complex text containing numerous technical provisions.
A double ratification procedure? The new idea described by the foreign affairs minister, Micheál Martin, consists of a plan to ratify the treaty via a double procedure:
a) referendum for provisions directly affecting the European status of the country and which, according to the poll carried out at the end of July, were at the origin of the “no” vote - namely: the risk of losing a European commissioner of Irish nationality; the presumed suppression of the right of veto on European decisions regarding taxation; the hypothetical obligation of Ireland to amend legislation on abortion, homosexual marriage etc; the alleged obligation of Ireland having to join a future European army. Citizens will be given detailed information on Lisbon Treaty provisions on these issues, supporting texts and accompanying “common declarations”;
b) parliamentary ratification of other aspects of the Lisbon Treaty are often complex and cannot be decided by a simple yes or no because they are largely part of the previous provisions that have not been republished (they are, however, available for those who want to consult them).
It should be emphasised that according to a legal analysis of the Irish constitution, holding a referendum is not obligatory for approving a new European treaty.
Slowdown complications. Previous analyses and perspectives complicate the European timetable. The Irish government has indicated that at the European Council next month, the prime minister will not be presenting a detailed plan but only orientations, in the belief that the rethink should be thrashed out further and opposition parties involved in it. The anti-Europeans affirm that another referendum would mean forcing the will of the people. The government and main parties have to take these sensitive considerations into account and this will take time. This is impacting on next year's European elections. Above all, in the absence of the Lisbon Treaty, the setting up of a new Commission will only be able to take place according to the Nice Treaty provisions, which reduce the number of commissioners, and this does not bode well in the perspective of a new consultation of the Irish people.
At the same time, in a few member states, the ideas still persists of the Lisbon Treaty being a dead letter or at least blocked until the Irish problem has been resolved. Dublin, however, is demanding time to build a positive atmosphere. According to some observers, waiting for Ireland is not indispensable: some extreme solutions have been suggested, such as abandoning the prerequisite of unanimous ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and for member states that already agree on ratifying it to adopt it and rapidly put it into force, without the countries that reject it. It is true that the current treaty would remain in force, but void of any real content: common economic policies would in practice be abandoned (including the CAP and the solidarity policy) and relaunched according to the rules of the new treaty and those that ratified it.
These suggestions are purely hypothetical and theoretical because they are untenable. If deep-seated divergences continue, the only practicable way forward is through approval of the Lisbon Treaty and the swift and substantial creation of strengthened cooperation and other similar exercises in which member states that do not accept new developments, will not participate. The problem of the timetable persists.
(F.R./transl.rh)