Brussels, 07/03/2008 (Agence Europe) - The June 2007 European Council instructed Javier Solana and the European Commission to draw up a report on the security side of climate change, analysing repercussions of global warming on international security and making a number of recommendations for the EU. The report has just been submitted to the EU Council of Ministers, which will be discussing it in Brussels on Monday 10 March 2008, before submitting it to EU heads of state at the European Council of 13-14 March. The conclusions published by the Slovenian Presidency are expected to instruct the Council and Commission to continue their work to ensure the EU can cope with the impact of climate change, which is already being felt and is expected to mushroom in the near future.
Experts argue that even if greenhouse gas emissions were to be cut to half the 1990s levels by 2050, it would still be difficult to prevent average temperatures on the planet rising by 2°C. In other words, explained a diplomat working on the issue, even if all light bulbs were switched off for good today, it would not be possible to avoid a temperature increase of 2°C or more. Global warming will increase the number and intensity of outbursts of tension around the world and increase instability in already sensitive area. The most fragile countries will be affected the worst, explained the diplomat, including some of the EU's neighbours, Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. New tensions are expected to be generated from shifting borders and loss of land (like islands and coastal areas) and the desire to claim ownership or control of land when the Arctic Circle's ice-cap melts. Five countries (Denmark, Norway, Canada, the United States and Russia) have already planted their flag on new maritime areas in the North. The diplomat commented that here and elsewhere, it may be necessary to assess the capacity of international law to cope with climate change. In some regions, like the Middle East and the Sahel, drought and lack of water will lead to rising tension and force people to emigrate. The UN is predicting that millions of people will be forced off their land post-2020 due to climate change in the form of water shortages, loss of farmland, flooded coastal areas, etc.
In order to deal with this, the European Union should seek to increase the resources already provided for conflict prevention, crisis-management, reconstruction and dealing with catastrophes. Expansion of surveillance and early warning systems through the GMES global satellite surveillance system, should contribute to this. But this 'reference document' should also be used to increase awareness about all these issues. Countries in Asia and the Arab League have recently become aware of this, but the EU should continue to build on its diplomatic efforts to convince others of the need to take more effective action against climate change, developing bilateral and multilateral cooperation to help the most fragile countries cope with crises in the future. (O.J.)