A project that has no chance of being realised. There had never been as much talk about relations between the EU and Mediterranean third countries as since the President of France proposed the creation of a Mediterranean Union. This project is, in my opinion, flawed for two reasons at least: a) there cannot be a Union between some EU member states and a group of third countries, since the essence of such a project is necessarily European in character; b) the Mediterranean third countries refuse to be put together in a single group, because they have differing ambitions and projects (see this column in yesterday's edition). The positive point in Mr Sarkozy's initiative lies in the visibility he has given this sea and the countries surrounding it, their history, millennia old cultural relations, today little-known or forgotten, between the two shores. For how long has the Mediterranean only been spoken about from the point of view of the conflict between the Arab countries and Israel? This is a painfully simplistic view, which must be left behind. However, the project as presented has no chance of coming to fruition. Angela Merkel has just made this point decisively (see following pages of this edition).
Brussels contents itself with saying that anything which serves to build links is useful, on condition that it does not harm what already exists: the Barcelona Process, the plan for a general free trade area (which will remain an illusion as long as the countries of the other shore do not set up a unified market among themselves), the neighbourhood policy and bilateral agreements. France is quick to reassure its EU partners with explanations and clarifications, delivered with tact and wisdom by Secretary of State for European Affairs Jean-Pierre Jouyet, with one or two faux pas from Ambassador Alain Le Roi, who has been given responsibility for this issue. Mr Le Roy stresses that only those countries bordering on the Mediterranean will be full members of the new Union, although “countries like Germany could be involved in projects, without being part of the inner group”. Mr Jouyet gives more detail and is more reassuring: an organisation that is not too unwieldy, informal relations, concrete projects selected by common agreement and with the voluntary involvement of interested countries only. The proposal is becoming a very sensible one: you can call it a Union if that's what you want.
Partner countries confirm their national ambitions. The Mediterranean third countries have maintained an attitude of polite expectation, highlighting, in fact, their national ambitions. In particular, Morocco is thinking about a new “bilateral contract” with the EU, to replace and strengthen the current association agreement (the outcome of a joint study is to be made public in autumn 2008). Algeria is currently considerably and effectively developing energy cooperation, and is calling for the right to be able to supply some of its gas directly to consumers (just like Gazprom). Tunisia hopes to become the first Mediterranean third county to set up bilateral free trade with the EU (something that would mean that the illusory general free trade area would have to be abandoned). Other countries have other priorities, linked to the conflict with Israel and their domestic situations. Overall, these countries give the impression of a façade of solidarity, in part duplicitous. In fact, plans to create groupings among themselves are making virtually no headway.
And what about the cultural chapter, which, according to Nicolas Sarkozy's Tangier speech, should be at the heart of the project? Everyone is agreed in principle: cultural dialogue, fraternity, common history and so on. In concrete terms ,the reality of the situation is far away from what is hoped for. There is even the impression that, on the ground, there is a growing lack of understanding and the situation is becoming more complicated.
A clear conclusion. My conclusion is clear: the project, so badly thought out by Paris as it was at the start, is completely impractical. Angela Merkel's strong comments are a confirmation. As an opportunity for debate, the initiative has, perhaps, not been without value, on condition that the emphasis is laid on achieving things that are essential and urgent, like cleaning up the Mediterranean and its shores.
Post Script. The above commentary had already been written when I learned from Paris that Nicola Sarkozy and Angela Merkel had agreed to “work on a joint proposal to allow all the Europeans who wish to become involved in the Mediterranean Union project”. The title will now have to be changed to “Euro-Mediterranean Union”. We are on the right track.
(F.R.)