Sarkozy project fails to respond to expectations of other side. My previous commentary on the European orientations of the president of the French Republic left out one of his initiatives, the project for the Mediterranean Union. In my opinion it is both unclear and unconvincing. It would bring together the seven Mediterranean countries of the EU (as well as Portugal, which considers itself and is considered as part of the group) and the southern Mediterranean countries including both Turkey and Israel (even this has not been explicitly pointed out). This would be a new Union, different to that of the EU. In a speech in Toulon, Mr Sarkozy spoke about an “autonomous” Union that could have “links with the European institutions”.
This aspect, however, is not the most significant part. The nature and shape of the new Union could be defined and clarified as things progress. The fundamental factor is that this project does not correspond to the situation or aspirations of the southern Mediterranean countries. The Turkish authorities have indicated that they are waiting for additional indications before speaking out on the matter (Sarkozy had indicated that Turkey “will have its appropriate place in the Mediterranean Union”) but they do not see this project as an alternative to accession at all, which remains their irreplaceable objective. The authorities in the other southern Mediterranean countries have not spoken officially on the matter yet but looking at the half-failed Barcelona Process is enough to get an idea of the nature of the obstacles that exist. The failure of the Euro-Mediterranean free-trade zone for the period leading up to 2010 (it's not just at the European Parliament where there are still pretences in believing in it) is mainly due to the fact that the southern Mediterranean countries have no intention of setting up such a zone between their respective countries. Their economic and political differences make this impossible. What they are interested in, is their bilateral relations with the EU, especially access to the European market. This is an understandable goal but has nothing to do with a genuinely comprehensive free trade zone where goods, services and capital move freely between the countries in the zone. Positive results were achieved in the current bilateral context for some agricultural products, textiles and above all, energy products. The southern Mediterranean countries, however, are not even thinking about a Union that stretches from Turkey and Lebanon right up to Morocco. In the absence of free-trade between the southern Mediterranean countries, how could European investors be expected to show interest in very limited national markets? Although there are some investments, these are targeting the European market as an outlet. A comprehensive Union is a view of what is in mind.
Big on words, short on contents. Political objectives are extremely different in each of the southern Mediterranean countries too. Algeria is not interested in a Union, not even as part of a Maghreb framework, neither is Morocco. Libya is aiming more for African rather than Mediterranean unity. In the event of positive developments, Lebanon is looking more towards countries that are closer to it. All of them aspire to develop their bilateral relations with Europe. The numerous multilateral structures are sometimes useful: the Barcelona Process, the Euro-Mediterranean Assembly, sectoral organisations and the Mediterranean Forum (which has just met in Crete) have achieved some results. But nothing would suggest the premise of an actual Union. A new structure incorporating what exists would be another politico-bureaucratic construction, a forum for rhetorical exercises, big on words and short on contents.
Two urgent goals. It is true that Nicolas Sarkozy appears to have felt the danger. After having paid his tribute to the rhetoric he indicated that his Mediterranean Union should primarily focus on two concrete objectives: safeguarding the Mediterranean Sea (we are aware of to what extent it is under threat) and the environment as a whole. These two objectives should get unanimous support. Mr Sarkozy added that a common policy could be envisaged on immigration, the coordinated fight against terrorism and global security in the region. Nonetheless, if the first two objectives are urgent, and they are, they need to be tackled immediately. It should not be forgotten that cooperation with regard to illegal immigration has already been discussed as part of the EU framework, in liaison with the most affected southern Mediterranean countries, and some positive results appear possible. Tackling these specific problems should not be drowned in a nebulous project that provokes distrust in the countries involved and which, in any case, requires years of negotiations and endless controversy. It has barely been launched and we've already got a taste of what is in store: I'll be looking at this matter tomorrow.
(FR)