Brussels, 10/04/2007 (Agence Europe) - The report from the international scientific experts on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in Brussels on 6 April (see EUROPE 9398) is as overwhelming as the impact of the rise in temperature of more than 2° Celsius above the pre-industrial level will be on all sectors and regions of the world, bar none. However, it will be the developing countries - mainly in sub-Saharan Africa - the Arctic and the small islands that will pay the heaviest price of the climate change that is already taking place. The melting of the ice caps, millions of people open, every year to flooding caused by the rising level of the sea, the disappearance of around 30% of coastal areas, heat waves, droughts, forest fires, reduced yield from agriculture, millions of people faced with the growing problems of access to clean water, famine, diarrhoeal illnesses, cardio-respiratory problems and infectious diseases, between 20 and 30% of animal and vegetable species facing increased risks of extinction, tropical coral reef death on a massive scale: the list of disasters announced by the report “Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” is frightening. But this contribution from the Working Group II to the 4th IPCC assessment report stresses too that the impact of climate change can also be reduced if there is a drop in greenhouse gas emissions and if the planet can adapt to unforeseen consequences. Delegations from 124 countries working for five days produced a report 1,500 pages long, the fruit of six years of work. The summary for policy makers, however, caused the delegations a sleepless night, and this due to political interference in the scientific work. The Chinese, Saudis and Americans tried to water down the text to minimise the scope - much to the displeasure of scientists. The Americans nonetheless managed to have a paragraph on the economic impact of climate change for all of North America removed.
The European Commission welcomed the publication of this eagerly awaited report. It feels that the report confirms the validity of the final objective of the United Nations framework convention on climate change, to which the EU has subscribed and which informs the EU strategy, and it intends to launch a period of reflection on the adaptation necessary to global warming. In a press release published on 6 April, Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said: “Today's IPCC report spells out very clearly the severe effects that climate change will have on all of us. The report shows many of the serious impacts that would occur if global warming exceeded the EU's target of not more than 2°C above the pre-industrial level. The temperature today is already almost 0.8°C above that level, so the world needs to act fast if we are to succeed in stabilising climate change and thereby prevent its worst impacts. Before the summer, I intend to launch a Green Paper on adaptation to climate change in order to focus attention on areas where this is most needed”.
In the opinion of the IPCC's Indian chairman Rajendra Pachauri, speaking to press after the meeting; it was “a marathon meeting, a very productive, but tiring, exercise. What we have in the end is an excellent report dealing with impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and which determine the responses of humans and societies … to counter this problem”. Referring specifically to the melting of glaciers, from among the many regional details of the report, projecting the implications of this phenomenon, the rising levels of the sea threatening many parts of the world, the impact on agriculture, and also the economic dimension of the issue, he warned, “Poor people will be the ones most affected by and vulnerable to the rise in temperatures. This requires all our attention because the poor are the least well equipped to adapt to climate change. This is a global responsibility”.
British geographer Martin Parry, Co-Chairman of the IPCC Working Group II warmly welcomed the publication of this second report which completes the third and final report, finalised in Bangkok for publication by Cambridge University this summer. “50 years ago, we were speaking about a detectable anthropological effect. Five years ago, we were speaking about a discernable regional anthropogenic effect. Today, the conclusion is that climate change caused by human activity is already having a discernable global impact, on many physical and biological systems: plants, animals, water, ice. The greater the climate change, the more its impact will increase.
If we mitigate climate change, we prevent its impact. For the first time, we are not dealing with more models. It's the first time that the phenomenon has been proved on a statistical basis”, underlined Mr Parry, convinced like all scientists that, “adaptation will be necessary and vital in the near term to address impacts resulting from climate change, whereas mitigation may work in the longer term”
Osvaldo Canziani, Italian co-president of the number 2 working group pointed out that, “to keep the world population at the same level of development, we'll need four planets. It is therefore up to the decision-makers to improve conditions for the future”.
The main conclusions in the IPCC: recent climate change is already having strong effects on ecosystems, water resources and coastal zones across the world. Some observed impacts are occurring at a faster rate than previously anticipated. Humans are also being affected through e.g increased water stress, excess mortality during heatwaves, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, limitations to mountain sports, threats to indigenous livelihoods and increased risk of forest fires. Many observed effects of recent climate change can now be attributed to human greenhouse gas emissions; - future climate change will increase drought and flood risks in many regions, decrease water resources in many semi-arid and arid areas, threaten the viability of many coastal settlements around the globe, cause widespread extinctions of biological species, decrease crop yields in most tropical regions, and increase the risk of hunger; - global warming of more than 2°C above current levels will result in widespread loss of biodiversity, decreasing global agricultural productivity, and a commitment to widespread melting of the Greenland ice sheets, which would raise sea levels by 4-6 meters eventually; - recent climate change in Europe has had wide-ranging impacts on natural and managed ecosystems, on glaciers, and on human health; - future climate change will generally magnify existing regional differences in Europe's natural resources. It will increase most climate-related hazards, including winter floods and coastal floods in maritime regions, snowmelt floods in central and eastern Europe, flash floods throughout Europe and forest fires in southern Europe; - such changes will significantly increase water stress in central and southern Europe, increase climate-related health risks from heatwaves and flooding, have substantial adverse effects on biodiversity, and pose challenges to many economic sectors in Europe, including agriculture, forestry, tourism, and energy production; - mitigation through emission reductions can reduce or delay most impacts of climate change in the medium and long term; - both mitigation and adaptation to climate change are necessary to avoid major negative impacts of climate change; - climate change, however, will have significant impacts even with a combination of aggressive mitigation and adaptation.
For the Greens/EFA in the European Parliament, the political lesson to be drawn from this scientific warning is clear for developed countries. “Today's report by the IPCC makes clear that the legacy of our pollution will be first borne by the world's poorest: the inaction of developed countries in combating climate change will compound suffering in the developing world. Our planet has a fever and we need to act rapidly to prevent the disease from getting worse,” said Finnish Green MEP Satu Hassi. Noting the commitment made by the EU to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2020 if the other industrialised countries do likewise, she added, “Instead of squabbling over who is doing the least to combat change, developed countries within the EU and elsewhere should be forging ahead with efforts to prevent a potential climate catastrophe”. This presupposes that Chancellor Angela Merkel uses the next G8 Summit in June “to ensure that other developed countries are brought on board and that time-limited negotiations on a post 2012 agreement in the UN context are launched in Bali at the end of this year,” Ms Hassi said, adding, “We must not forget that, without meaningful action, temperatures will continue to increase beyond 2100. The existence of our societies is at stake”. Environmental NGOs (Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth Europe), shocked by this “glimpse into an apocalyptic future”, point out that, while there is no time to waste, there is still time to act to avoid the worst effects. They also call on the governments of developed countries to make “steep emissions cuts … and more funding for climate change adaptation in developing countries”, which will suffer most as the planet heats up, although they have done least to pollute the atmosphere. (an)