Alarming new IPCC scientific forecasts underline need for urgent global action

Brussels, 02/02/2007 (Agence Europe) - The facts are undeniable. The consensus report from the world's leading scientific experts on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I (WG1) published in Paris on 2 February projects that without further action to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature is likely to rise by a further 1.8-4.0°C this century, after increasing by over 0.7°C in the past 100 years. The alarming report will provide supporters of tougher action against climate change with ammunition in their battle to get the international community to take serious action, and several voices have already been heard in the EU, starting with EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas.

In a press release, the Commissioner comments: 'I am deeply concerned at the accelerating pace and the increasing extent of climate change that it shows. It is now more urgent than ever that the international community gets down to serious negotiations on a comprehensive new worldwide agreement to stop global warming. To stabilise global emissions of greenhouse gases, the next step must be for developed countries to cut their emissions to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020, as the Commission proposed last month.'

At the European Parliament, Satu Hassi (Finnish Green MEP, erstwhile Finnish environment minister) said: 'Those who continue to claim that climate change is not man-made have now been deserted by science. The IPCC report provides authoritative proof of the seriousness of climate change and its man-made origin. What was considered as the upper limit of acceptable warming is now at the lower end of the scale of scientific expectations. We must also not forget that without meaningful action, temperatures will continue to increase beyond 2100.' Hassi continued: 'The fight against climate change must be elevated to a higher political level and made apriority for global decision-makers….The EU should be giving leadership in its actions to combat climate change, yet we continue to sit on the fence… It is disturbing that, at the same time as the IPCC is coming out with disturbing scientific projections of the consequences of climate change, elements within the Commission and EU Member States are battling to weaken a legislative proposal aimed at tackling emissions from cars. The European Council (on 8-9 March, Ed.) must not sign up to the weak Commission proposals on climate change. In addition to robust legislation on emissions, EU Member States should commit to a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (from 1990 levels).'

The WG1 report, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, assesses the latest scientific knowledge on climate change and constitutes the first part of the IPCC's forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. It confirms the main findings of the Third Assessment Report from 2001, but many results can now be better quantified and there is even higher confidence in them. Its key conclusions include the following:

• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising sea levels.
• It is “very likely” that increases in man-made greenhouse gas emissions have caused most of the rise in globally averaged temperatures since the middle of the 20th century. It is “extremely unlikely” that this warming was due to natural climate variability alone.
• During the last century, the Earth warmed by 0.76°C on average, and the rate of warming has further increased. The 11 warmest years on record all occurred in the last 12 years. The second half of the 20th century was the warmest period in the northern hemisphere for at least 1,300 years. Europe has warmed by about 1°C over the past 100 years, faster than the global average.
• Based on scenarios assuming no further action is taken to limit emissions, the best estimates of the projected further rise in the global average temperature by 2100 range from 1.8 to 4.0°C. The full uncertainty range for projected global warming this century is 1.1-6.4°C.
• Rates of observed sea level rise almost doubled from 18 centimetres per century in 1961-2003 to 31 cm per century in 1993-2003.
• The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has continued to increase due to man-made emissions, and the rate of increase has further accelerated. Current concentrations of CO2 and methane are the highest for at least 650,000 years.

Extreme weather events have increased and regional climate patterns are changing. Heat waves and other weather extremes, as well as changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, storm tracks and precipitation, can now be traced back to climate change caused by human activities. (an)