Brussels/Beirut, 24/01/2007 (Agence Europe) - The Paris III conference, an initiative from President Jacques Chirac, will bring together in Paris on Thursday the main aid donors to Lebanon, and is expected to result in decisions on long-term support for the reconstruction of this country, devastated by a war with Israel. Two previous conferences have taken place in Paris, in 2001 and 2002, the decisions of which have not appeared to be of great significance to the Lebanese but the consequences of which have been affected by last summer's war. And the persistent political instability threatens to have an even greater effect on the situation in the country.
Economy minister Sami Haddad believes debt to be the major issue to be addressed at the conference. Commentators agree this meeting devoted to long-term support is the last chance for a country burdened with a debt of $41 billion (more than 180% of GDP)and whose economy is “clinically dead”, according to Kamal Hamdane, a Lebanese economist quoted in the press. He says that “most of the debt is not external, but internal, in dollars, with local banks”.
Lebanese Prime Minster Fouad Siniora's hoped-for Paris III lifeline will be in the form of donations or low-interest loans. His government has not put a figure on what they are hoping for, estimated by some at $9 billion. Mr Haddad says the IMF (International Monetary Fund), which made no contribution at Paris II, was prepared to bring its backing this time.
The European Commission would appear to be much more ready than all of Lebanon's other partners to provide aid. On the sidelines of the General Affairs/External Relations Council on Monday, External Affairs Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner announced that the Commission intended to make proposals on a programme to boost the country's economy, conditional on reform being carried out. The “clear message” was that “we want to help Lebanon, along with its government and its prime minister Fouad Seniora” on condition that the country undertakes economic and political reform, in accordance with the EU action plan for Lebanon, she said.
There was a similar message from Washington. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will attend the Paris conference and State Department spokesman Nicolas Burns announced that the US would grant a significant, but undisclosed, sum to Mr Siniora. Mr Burns said the aim of the US aid was to give support to the elected and democratic government against an axis of countries, Iran and Syria, and against organisations like Hezbollah, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and others.
This open support for Prime Minister Siniora can be set against a situation in Lebanon that is much more troubled, and could even be described as explosive. The one-day general strike called by the Muslim and Christian opposition was widely followed on Tuesday, and was accompanied by violence. Protests could continue over the coming days. Whether they grow, and the future action taken, will allow the level of confidence in (or defiance of) the government to be judged, a government paralysed by the resignation of several members and the break up of the coalition which supported it. The opposition today says that the government is not a legitimate one.
The Christian opposition leader and former head of state, Michel Aoun said, “This government which has lost support at home, is looking to the outside for support which will still not give it any legitimacy”. Paris III will not solve the country's problems, he said, “Paris I ended with a $24 billion debt, Paris II with a $36 billion, and Paris III $45 billion”. He predicted that a “Paris IV” would be needed to save the country from bankruptcy. “How can we continue to have confidence in those who are in charge of the Paris III reform programme, which aims only to pay off debts?” Mr Aoun wondered. He also argued for the “overall reform of the economy to re-adjust wages and redress the situation”.
He added, however, that it was not possible to talk about reform without also drawing up a plan to combat corruption, which “is eating away at the very structure of the state”. (fb)