Brussels, 02/12/2004 (Agence Europe) - For the eighteenth consecutive month, the European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates unchanged. The minimum submission rate applied to refinancing operations remains at 2%, and the marginal loan facility and the deposit facility at 3% and 1% respectively. "Currently, the rates are all right where they are, but vigilance is essential", said ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet at a press conference, justifying the status quo by the need "to act as an anchor in a changing environment". Mr Trichet did not, however, reveal what the individual positions had been of the members of the Board of Governors, adding: "I am not going to do a count, because everyone acknowledged that there were pros and cons, but the result (…) was a broad consensus".
With more moderate growth in the second half of the year, the forecasts of the ECB services put average growth in the euro zone between 1.6% and 2% in 2004, between 1.4% and 2.4% in 2005 and between 1.7% and 2.7% in 2006. Three months ago, slightly higher growth was anticipated for this year, and the drop is considerably more pronounced for next year. In September, the forecasts of the ECB bore witness to a growth margin between 1.8% and 2.8%. Inflation will remain above 2% in the coming months, and temporary rises have not been ruled out, President Trichet acknowledged, sticking to his guns and anticipating a return below 2% in the course of 2005. "The short-term prospects for inflation remain worrying, but our medium-term upwards assessment of prices remains unchanged", he said. Although he acknowledged the contribution of factors such as oil prices in the increase, he stressed the "absence of significant indications of underlying inflationary pressure" internally. The brackets of inflation forecasts are up on the most recent ones, at between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2004 (identical to the margin predicted in September), between 1.5% and 2.5% in 2005 (as against 1.3% to 2.3% three months ago) and between 1% and 2.2% in 2006.
Mr Trichet fielded very many questions about the highly anticipated possible joint action by Europe and Japan on the currency market in order to counter the fall in value of the dollar. Although Thursday's Financial Times spoke of talks between Europeans and Japanese to this effect, on the basis of indications by a member of the Japanese Ministry of Finance, Mr Trichet refused point blank to comment. He hopes to continue a "trusting relationship" on transatlantic cooperation. At the same time, he counselled "verbal discipline", and emphasised that the American authorities had already stated their intentions with regard to their currency and their lack of savings. He went no further than to say "what you already know: recent movements are not something we welcome, they are not desirable".
Lastly, further to the Commission's report on Greek budget statistics and the infringement proceedings launched against this country (see p.10), the President of the ECB pointed out that the Bank's position was in line with the sentiment expressed by Ecofin. We need an independent institution "to check the figures in files and on the ground", he stressed, without specifying the expectations for future proposals of the Commission.
ECB Vice-President Lucas Papademos said that the Commission's report "needs no comment", and past experience "must teach us lessons so that problems do not reoccur". Mr Trichet added that the Greek Central Bank was not at fault. He feels that it did all in its power by publishing the figures produced using two different calculation methods, as it "did not have the means to decide" itself which was the right one.