Don't write it off just yet. Following my three commentaries last week on the setting up and various priorities of the Barroso Commission (and the series is far from over, I will be coming back to it shortly), I must stress that we must not forget that the Prodi Commission is still there, and that it will carry out all of its duties for another two months. Don't write it off just yet! It has just taken position on a more flexible application of the Stability Pact, and over the few weeks it has left, it will take position on such important and delicate dossiers as the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey. In fields coming under its exclusive competency, it is to take difficult decisions, such as whether to continue infringement proceedings against Volkswagen. Furthermore, and not trivially, certain Commissioners will bequeath to their successors dossiers which inflamed hearts and minds before they were even debated in the Council and the European Parliament; one need only mention the Bolkestein draft on the opening up of the services market, the Monti project in favour of greater competition in the liberal professions, which are today rigorously controlled, and the Fischler plans for the reform of the sugar market.
Three 'old' Commissioners out of 25. These bequests are all the more significant as there will be no real continuity of personnel between the Prodi Commission and the Barroso Commission. Only three of the current Commissioners will join the new one: Mr Verheugen and Ms Wallström as Vice-Presidents, plus Ms Reding (I am not counting those who have been part of the Prodi Commission for just a few weeks), and characters who have marked the last five years of European life will disappear from the Community horizon: Pascal Lamy and Mario Monti (both of who have regularly been feted in the press), Antonio Vitorino, esteemed in all quarters (a rare thing indeed), Loyola de Palacio, Franz Fischler, Frits Bolkestein and those who, after slow starts, gained in confidence and authority, such as Michaele Schreyer and Philippe Busquin. Even though it is likely (and desirable) that collegiality will be even more marked in the future Commission, differences of orientation of behaviour will almost certainly become apparent between the current Commissioners and their successors. To cite just one example, it is unlikely that the new Commissioner for services and the internal market, Charlie McCreevy, will show the same radical liberalism Frits Bolkestein remained faithful to until the end, in spite of the European Parliament and the Court of Justice distancing themselves from him on occasion. But to sit down today and try to work out the intentions and orientations of the new Commissioners would be a waste of time, because, before the month is out, they will go up before the European Parliament, and they will tell us more themselves. And this will be the time for a detailed discussion.
Three subjects to look at in detail. I return, then, to the last weeks in the life of the Prodi Commission. European current affairs and the Community calendar mean that these last few weeks will bear little resemblance to a peaceful, uncontroversial "end of reign". Almost all the dossiers I mentioned in the first paragraph deserve their own dedicated commentary. In the next few days, I will give my observations on the initiative concerning the Stability Pact (laid out in our bulletin of 4 September, pages 7 and 8). I will report in detail on Pascal Lamy's presentation of new ideas on trade policy (on 15 September), which go by the name of "collective preferences", or the preferences of the collectivity. And I also intend to come back to what is the most inflammatory dossier from a political point of view, that of the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey. The debate grows in volume with additional arguments on all sides, and it seems increasingly likely that any radical wording for or against negotiations could cause serious friction between the Member States, political forces and even public opinion. We need to try to transcend the simplicity of a "yes" or "no" answer, and go for a more articulate response. I will try to give you a few indications in the near future, which aim to forward the idea that a more nuanced approach is not impossible.
(F.R.)