The European Commission's diagnosis on the dangers of disindustrialisation in the EU (see this column yesterday) ends with the following conclusion: "it cannot be concluded that disindustrialisation really exists in Europe, but it is possible to confirm the effects of the permanent process- which can be painful if they are concentrated in certain sectors or regions, but beneficial overall- of adjustment, via which resources are continuously re-directed to sectors with comparative advantages". However, the "worrying signs" are also highlighted (I referred to them yesterday), and the Commission states that it is unable to say whether these signs reflect "long-term economic developments", or are essentially the result of the unfavourable economic situation and a gradual adaptation to emerging new competitors.
Enlargement offers "opportunities". The Commission's analysis plays up "the opportunities offered by enlargement". The effects of the accession of eight central and eastern European countries on the industrial sector will be largely positive. The economic structures of these countries is becoming more aligned with those of the current EU (reduction of agriculture and industry, increase in services), but they remain attractive to investment; "the geographical and cultural proximity and the adoption of the Community acquis are additional assets for European industry", as is "the high level of education of the population". It is true that the delocalisation of various activities to the new Member States could cause problems for certain regions of the current EU due to their "local impact"; but there are solutions. The Commission cites the Baden-Wurtemberg region as an example of a crisis situation which took full advantage of new opportunities, because the local authorities focused their efforts on promoting "clusters" in industries such as micro-electronics or ICT, to replace the loss of car-building and mechanical engineering to the east. It should be borne in mind that delocalisation to the new Member States at least stays inside the Union, which is an advantage overall, even though the regional problems this causes should not be ignored, especially in border regions and countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece. The Commission sums up this concept as follows: "for the time being, access to the new Member States could allow production which would otherwise have been transferred to Asia to remain within the EU, and thus guarantee the competitiveness of the sectors in question". It quotes the example of Nokia, which delocalised some of its activities to the east, whilst keeping the lion's share in Finland.
Exploiting opportunities opened up by enlargement is, however, subordinate to the smooth running of the enlarged single market, which depends on the acquis being properly applied in the new Member States: competition rules, standards applicable to products, environmental legislation, etc. This is essential if competition is not to be distorted.
Accompanying measures. Alongside the "enlargement" effect, the main thrust of the recommended European industrial policy lies in the measures to accompany industrial change, involving three categories of action:
a) improving legislative procedure, making sure that the regulatory burden is no greater than it needs to be;
b) mobilising other Community policies, which contribute to industry's competitiveness. These policies should not lose sight of their own objectives, but they have a certain "progress potential" for industry. For the most important of them, competition policy, which has come under scrutiny which has bordered on polemics over the years, the Commission has approved a specific document, which has, bizarrely, not yet been the object of in-depth analysis to the best of my knowledge, despite the high hopes with which it was anticipated in political and economic circles alike. I will come back to it next week.
c) taking account of the specific needs of the various industrial sectors. These is no single formula which is valid for all sectors. The Union will be able to take the experience of the past into the equation, particular that of restructuring the steel industry.
In each of these three categories, the EU has already taken initiatives and had some success. It must clarify, add to and implement the projects. The Commission insists that business costs should be reduced, and it proposes to define "indicators of regulatory quality", and create a study mechanism on the impact of legislative initiatives, based on experience. It has announced two new programmes: one on innovation, which will be presented in the summer; the other, a "strategic agenda" on the future of research in the manufacturing industry, will be presented in the autumn. (FR)