Brussels / Cancun, 12/09/2003 (Agence Europe) - On Friday, half-way through the Conference of Cancun, the ministers of the 146 member countries of the World Trade Organisation, who had just agreed to membership by Cambodia and Nepal, were to go on to the decisive phase of their meeting, during which they hope to have consensus on solutions to bring negotiations on the Doha Development Agenda out of deadlock in around twenty chapters ranging from agriculture to non-agricultural market access, as well as another fifteen issues including the Singapore issues, another North/South fixation, and also cotton.
"We are optimistic for now" about the chances of reaching an agreement this week, Trade Minister for Benin Fatiou Akplogan said last night (European time). He confided that the "major powers will understand us and the WTO will do what it can to reach an equitable solution in the cotton sector". After the formal presentation of the action requested by his country, as well as Burkina Faso, Mali and Chad, the Director General for the Institution, Supachaï Panichpakdi, practically plunged into the fray himself to urge the Summit to take the equitable solution submitted to them seriously. He has now just agreed to head discussions on the matter. Europeans who did not seem to understand that they too were targeted as a priority and not just the United States finally grasped the fact. Their chief negotiator nonetheless assured them that it was out of the question to allow this to become a threat to Common Agricultural Policy. Pascal Lamy sought to draw attention to market access, which does not concern Europeans, but this has so far been in vain. Africans are calling for an end to all subsidies, he said, but it must be realised that "if boxes are dropped for cotton, it will lead to a domino effect on olive oil, tobacco and sugar". The United States replied for its part with a proposal to extend the African initiative to subsidies on synthetic fibres, and also to taxes on fibres and on clothing and textiles. Sending the ball back in this way will not fail to considerably annoy other countries such as India. India, which has managed through tactical alliances to make farm subsidies and Singapore questions dividing lines with the North.
On these new subjects at the WTO - investment, competition, public procurement and trade facilitation - sixteen developing countries reaffirmed on Thursday that they refuse to launch negotiations without further analyses being made. However, although opposition remains substantial on many aspects, as Mr Lamy pointed out to the Fifteen meeting in Council on Thursday, according to European sources, it was indicated a little later that things are beginning to move. The Union has put forward the idea of voluntary participation in variable geometry and three developing, Latin American and African countries are said to have rallied to the solution of launching negotiations in Cancun on the Singapore subjects, an idea defended by the Europeans with the support of other countries like Japan and South Korea.
On agriculture, still the nerve centre of the Conference, things do not look as though they will get moving till the very last minute. One western diplomat remarked last night that everyone is presenting his boutique and we shall probably lose a few days like that. Keith Rockwell, WTO Spokesman, said the delegations were still keeping their cards well hidden, while the 146 expected that their Singapore counterpart, George Yeo, would make proposals with a view to a preliminary compromise on a framework for programmed reform. As no movement has been recorded anywhere along the negotiation table in Cancun, the facilitator has had to intervene. Mr Rockwell explained that, when there is a gap that is as big as it now is, it is very difficult to try to find common ground on which to build consensus. After a meeting with the representatives of the Group of Twenty-One (and even 22 with Kenya), hostile to the farm subsidies of rich countries, Commissioner Franz Fischler announced, via his spokesperson, that he has not seen any flexibility at all from any of his interlocutors who have repeated their demands on market access, direct aid and export subsidies. Also, he went on, Mr Fischler has presented the EU position and said what was unacceptable and what was not. What is unacceptable is without doubt what affects the "green box" of subsidies that does not distort competition on the world market and on which the CAP has been increasingly focused during its reforms. "This is the line in the sand not to cross", Mr Lamy confirmed to the Fifteen. He also noted that the group speaks almost exclusively of subsidies, hardly ever about market access as the interests of Brazil and India are very different, and that its claims on export competition means Europe is in the firing line. This is also one of the weak points of the medium term alliance on agriculture that the Union and the United States, driven into the corner by the anti-subsidy pressure maintained by Brazil, China and India, have fashioned in less than one month over the summer. On access to farm markets, where Europeans and Americans as well as almost all the other members of the WTO, recommend clearly greater liberalisation which is not at all to the taste of the three leaders of the developing world, the two solutions, namely ambitious and binding tariff reductions in all sectors, or smaller reductions per sector, are still in contention.
Whether or not future commitments will be binding will be a crucial issue in the negotiations, comment close EU sources. Lamy wants eco-labelling to remain on the WTO agenda, even if nothing is actually decided in Cancun, and also wants debate on geographical indications (being looked at by the miscellaneous working group) to remain on the table for the moment.
On Thursday, the World Trade Organisation decided to let two of the poorest countries in the world join its ranks, namely Nepal and Cambodia. Thirty of the 49 poorest countries (in the United Nations league of poverty) are already members of the WTO, accounting for 0.5% of global trade. Nepal and Cambodia were subject to slimlined accession procedures (recently used by the WTO for developing countries) but will not become full members until either their parliaments have ratified the treaties negotiated in Geneva or in six months time at the latest. The WTO was set up in 1995. The two new members will bring new members since its creation to 21, the most significant of which are China and Taiwan. Russia, whose application is described as "a complicated issue", is continuing to negotiate the painstaking bilateral and multilateral agreement of its future commitments, note WTO sources prudently.
The 146 countries will also have to decide on various insignificant procedural matter. Ministers will have to clarify, for example, should the decision arise, whether to extend the summit (it is scheduled to end on Sunday). Observers in Cancun do not expect the decision of whether or not to extend the Summit to be taken until the last minute (as in Seattle and Doha). The conference will also be deciding on deadlines for the Doha Round. Some countries, such as Brazil, have said that unlike the European Union, they are not particularly interested in meeting deadlines. It is currently planned for ministers to look at the issue at the end of the Summit with a view to keeping up the pressure and ensure ministers focus on the matter at hand - getting the delegations to stop their tactical posturing and start getting down to business in negotiating mutual concessions in Cancun.