Brussels, 24/04/2001 (Agence Europe) - The European Commission, which publishes its spring economic forecasts for the EU and for candidate countries on Wednesday, is expected to reduce its initial estimates with a forecast of 2.7% growth of GDP for the euro-zone for 2001, instead of 3.2% forecast last November. The European executive confirms a slowdown in the European economy, which is very marked for Germany, but tables on a "rapid return to sound growth". Forecasts show sustained growth, "sufficiently robust" and "potentially higher" for 2001-2002. After the fashion of the Eurogroup (see EUROPE of 23 April 2001, p.9), the Commission considers that growth is based largely on consumer confidence which is at a "historically high" level, and that single currency makes the states of the euro-zone less vulnerable to exchange rate variations.
Further to the growing "indiscretion" over the past few days, the trends of certain large countries are well known. France would take the lion's share, with a performance of around 2.9%. Germany would see its growth fall to nearly 2.25% for the year 2001, although 2.8% was forecast in November, but would rise to 2.6% in 2002. Italy would have growth of 2.5% in 2001.
On Wednesday, the Commission must adopt its document on the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPG) for the year 2001, which contain general and individual recommendations addressed to Member States in relation to the Stability Pact. It encourages Member States to pursue structural reform and to keep their course towards budgetary consolidation.