Luxembourg, 21/02/2001 (Agence Europe) - Eurostat has just published a report on recent developments and prospects for the working population in the EU at national level (period 1995-2050) and regional level (1995-2025), from which it mainly emerges that, at national level, the labour force should increase until 2010, then decrease up to 2050. The same evolution is expected at regional level, where the labour force will decrease between 2010 and 2050 in most regions. Also, the level of dependence (ratio between the active and inactive population) should begin to increase from the end of this decade already in most regions of the EU.
In 1995 the working population represented 169 million people. If demographic tendencies and those of the level of activity continue, it should rise to 183 million towards 2010, says the Community's Statistical Office. It should then fall and, in 2050, the active population could return to the 1985 level (154 million people). Up to 2010, only some EU regions essentially situated in the eastern part of Germany, Northern Italy and Sweden should be confronted with a fall in their labour forces, whereas 80% of the 202 regions observed could record such a fall between 2010 and 2025.
This tendency may be explained by the fact that, from 2010, the first generations of the post-war baby-boom will reach 65. This, Eurostat emphasises, will mark the beginning of a long period of decline of the population of working age, decline that will however be partially compensated by a rise in activity of young adults, women and people aged between 55 and 64. The rise in the level of dependence is, however, forecast in most regions between 2010 and 2025. In 2025, the active population should only exceed the inactive population in 18 regions of the EU (against 42 in 1995 and 63 in 2010). Finally, in 2050, the "grey pressure" (pressure exercised on the labour force by the over 60s) could represent double the "green pressure" (children under 19).