Brussels, 31/01/2000 (Agence Europe) - The European Commission has just published a 137-page report analysing the prospects of agricultural markets for the whole of the 1999-2006 period covered by Agenda 2000. The Commission notes a generally favourable evolution of world markets but its forecasts are less optimistic than those of the OECD or the FAO. The document presents the most likely trends in production and consumption of the various farm products in the EU and in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, forecasts being based on the most recent statistical information.
As far as the EU is concerned, the Commission services envisage an increase in the production of cereals, which should entail larger stocks, despite increased consumer demand and exports without refunds. As far as oil-producing plants are concerned, the reduction of direct payments, which will be gradually brought back to the level of cereals, will entail a reduction in the cultivated surface area and production. This reduction should, however, prove less important than initially foreseen. The production of beef should take on its usual cyclical nature. The production and the demand for poultry should increase sharply whereas the pig and goat sectors may not undergo any particular changes. Dairy production will increase but should largely be absorbed by cheese production that is expected to be in line with the growth in consumer demand. An increase in the stocks of butter and powdered milk must be envisaged.
In Central and Eastern European countries, the production is expected to increase in all sectors. The Commission, however, expects that this increase will be absorbed by consumer demand which should also increase for all products. The share intended for export will, however, increase for dairy products, cereals, oil-producing plants and pigmeat. These countries will, on the other hand, become net importers for beef and poultry.