In its first forecast for the 2026 harvest, published on Tuesday 9 December, the European association of trade in cereals (COCERAL) estimates the total grain crop in the EU27+United Kingdom at 296.7 million tonnes. This would represent a decrease of 3.2% compared to the 306.6 million tonnes harvested in 2025.
Wheat production (excluding durum) is forecast at 143.9 million tonnes, compared with 147.5 million tonnes in 2025. Yields are set to fall after the exceptionally high levels of 2025, even though the rainfall of recent months has helped to maintain favourable soil moisture levels.
Barley production is forecast to fall from 63.2 to 58.2 million tonnes, with the steepest drop expected in Spain.
Corn production in 2026 is estimated at 58.9 million tonnes, compared with 57.1 million tonnes in 2025. The EU’s corn acreage is estimated to have fallen by around 15% since 2020, from more than 9 million hectares to less than 8 million hectares.
The rapeseed harvest in the EU27+United Kingdom is forecast at 21.8 million tonnes, the same as in 2025. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)