On Wednesday 4 June, the European Commission adopted recommendations approving, in a coordinated manner, the request from EU Member States wishing to activate the national escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact over the period 2025-2028 in order to increase their military spending (see EUROPE 13632/8).
At this stage, the EU institution has been able to examine requests from the following 15 countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic. Germany will formally make its request when it presents its medium-term budget programme at the end of July at the latest.
Poland, for example, is reporting military spending in excess of 3% of GDP from 2025. Estonia mentions spending 5% of national GDP from 2026, while Belgium is intending to spend 2% of GDP.
The Commission examined the requests on the basis of the following criteria: - additional annual military expenditure will not exceed 1.5% of national GDP compared to the growth path for net public expenditure; - military expenditure falls under Eurostat’s ‘COFOG’ classification (see EUROPE 13597/12); - apart from the increase in military spending, the country’s budgetary trajectory remains sustainable in the long term.
This means that military expenditure in excess of the authorised margin of 1.5% of GDP will be recorded as normal expenditure under the Stability Pact.
According to one European official, a real analysis of Member States’ additional military spending can only be carried out retrospectively, as they have not yet provided concrete plans.
See the Commission’s recommendations: https://aeur.eu/f/h68 (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)