On Thursday 10 October, the World Trade Organization (WTO) published its latest forecasts for merchandise trade in 2024 and 2025. It forecasts an increase in the volume of merchandise trade of 2.7% for 2024, which is slightly higher than the previous estimate of 2.6% (see EUROPE 13388/36).
Forecasts for 2025, meanwhile, have been revised downwards, to 3% growth instead of the 3.3% initially forecast.
On Thursday October 10, the WTO’s chief economist, Ralph Ossa, explained that the difference between the April and October forecasts was due to “weaker than expected trade growth in the European economies on the import and export side and stronger than expected exports in the Asian economies”.
While the figures are fairly reassuring for 2024, geopolitical tensions continue to pose major risks to trade forecasts, insists the WTO.
On the other hand, trade in services is developing more favourably than merchandise trade: the data available at this stage suggest continued growth for the second half of 2024.
See the forecasts: https://aeur.eu/f/dts (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)