Pascale Joannin, a political scientist and Director General of the Robert Schuman Foundation, was kind enough to provide an initial analysis of the political and institutional dynamics at work following the European elections on the afternoon of Monday 10 June (interview by Émilie Vanderhulst).
Agence Europe - Following the European elections, can you give us your initial analysis and projections?
Pascale Joannin - There is relative stability in the political forces, which remain the same as before in the Parliament. The European People’s Party is still number one. The Party of European Socialists is still number two. As we speak, the Liberal group is still in third place, despite a rise in radical right-wing parties, mainly in France, and in other countries, but which did not do as well as they might have hoped or did not come out on top, except in Austria and France. They are often relegated to third or fourth place. So we have a limited swing to the right, it’s not a tidal wave. We have a political balance, which was established with three majority parties and which is likely to be the same at the end of this election, when the new Parliament resulting from the election takes office.
Agence Europe - With the Spitzenkandidaten system for these elections, the EPP will be trying to obtain the support of the three main forces present in order to push its candidate forward. Do you think the path is already clear in this direction?
Pascale Joannin - The European People’s Party (EPP) came out on top in many of the 27 Member States: in Germany, Spain, Poland, Greece... Its current number of MEPs makes it the leading group. There may still be some uncertainty about new members joining the group, who are new parties. We do not know whether they will ultimately join the EPP.
Under an unwritten rule, it is entitled to claim the Presidency of the Commission, and this time it has chosen to endorse the outgoing President, Ursula von der Leyen, who is the candidate of the country, the CDU and the EPP. It’s hard to see how, given the political configuration resulting from this election, this could be called into question.
If that’s the case, the Socialists will want one post, the Liberals another. All this may be the subject of the negotiations which will take place between now and the end of June, and which should enable the European Parliament to hold its first plenary session in Strasbourg in mid-July, with the election of the Commission President on the agenda.
Agence Europe - Can you already see the possible impact on the legislative work already underway, such as the implementation of the Green Deal and other major matters?
Pascale Joannin - Many of the texts in the Green Deal have already been adopted. Some have already been modified. So there is indeed an impact. However, it is the new Commission that will be proposing texts, and it is not yet in office. Before that, there will be an election for the Presidency. That’s when there will be new legislation. For the moment, we’re in an in-between period.
Agence Europe - Many analysts regret that these elections do not have a real European dimension in terms of the organisation of lists and votes.
Pascale Joannin - Today - you’re right - there are 27 elections held at national level. We don’t have any elections taking place within a European framework. There was a proposal during the legislature, which did not succeed, from MEPs who were elected in a transnational context.
It would still be very difficult, because there would have to be the means to run a campaign when we have 24 different languages. There would have to be ways of making oneself understood. There are currently a number of technical difficulties in producing real campaigns that can be understood by all citizens. There would have to be translation or AI systems that would allow these candidates. I’m not sure that will happen in the short term.
Agence Europe - Does this lack of an election organised on a truly European basis also blur the analysis when trying to decipher what citizens have tried to convey through their vote, when this can be translated into many different meanings at national level?
Pascale Joannin - When this happens in a national context, you either get support for the government, because that’s what elections are about more or less, or you get a ‘punishment’ vote. In France, there was a massive punishment vote against the government. The same can be said of Germany, where all three coalition parties were equally punished. In other countries, it was the party of the head of government that was installed, the party of the government that was chosen.
There are few European considerations, more national ones. And Europe was barely mentioned in France’s election campaign, for example. It was talked about it in terms of impact, not as a central element.
Agence Europe - What is your first takeaway from the turnout, which had already increased at the 2019 elections and seems to be settling steadily at just over 50%?
Pascale Joannin - It’s good news, because it means we’re making progress. There was already an initial increase in 2019. A second one this time means that these European elections are still of interest. I’d like to see a bigger turnout, but it’s still a positive point, even if, in some States, these votes were not cast for very pro-European parties, but for parties known for a certain level of scepticism.
But that’s the law of democracy, and it’s good that these European elections are seeing an increase in turnout, because there are real European issues at stake and challenges that Europe needs to meet, and this was the election of the institution that represents citizens.