In its report on the LNG market published on Friday 19 April, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) indicates that demand in the EU should peak in 2024.
This peak is explained by the reduction in structural demand for gas, directly linked to the EU’s decarbonisation targets.
If REPowerEU’s target gas demand reduction scenario materialises by 2030, it could change the EU’s dependence on the LNG spot market from an ‘under-contracted’ position (meaning insufficient long-term contractual commitments) of 49 bcm in 2023 to an ‘over-contracted’ position of 30-40 bcm between 2027 and 2030.
The report also states that the EU has succeeded in securing gas supplies and diversifying its imports, partly thanks to LNG, in order to move further away from Russia.
More than 50 bcm of new LNG regasification infrastructure has been built in the EU since 2022, easing supply congestion and reducing the price differential between European gas hubs and spot LNG prices.
In 2023, the United States was the biggest exporter of LNG to the EU, with 119 bcm, but Russian LNG imports were also still present, with 18 bcm. It should be noted that the EU is the largest LNG import market (with imports of 134 bcm of LNG in 2023).
To see the report, go to https://aeur.eu/f/bve (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)