The European foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 18 March to discuss, as at their previous EU Council meetings, the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East, in particular to prepare for the European Council meeting on 21 and 22 March.
They will first have a discussion via videoconference with their American counterpart, Antony Blinken, on these two topics, but China and Venezuela may also be discussed.
Ukraine. This exchange of views will be followed by a traditional discussion on Ukraine, first via videoconference with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, and then with David O'Sullivan, EU special envoy on sanctions, on the implementation of the measures adopted and tackling their circumvention. Mr O'Sullivan is expected to explain to ministers what could be done to prevent circumvention. There may also be a focus on European companies that are aware of their stocks of products sent to third countries ending up in Russia.
Military support for Ukraine, which is short of ammunition, will once again be discussed. The Council is expected to approve the Ukraine Assistance Fund, which has been allocated €5 billion for 2024, which was the subject of an agreement between ambassadors on 13 March (see EUROPE 13370/1). Hungary and Slovakia have an opt-out for this Fund.
“This is a strong signal to Ukraine that we are continuing to support it not only in civilian but also in military terms, a signal to Russia and also a signal to Washington that we are continuing our support”, explained a senior European official.
In his view, the Fund should enable the continuation of the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM), the reimbursement of deliveries from stocks and individual purchases, as well as deliveries based on joint European purchases. “The emphasis is not only on EU public procurement, but also on associating Ukraine as much as possible”, said this senior official.
The European External Action Service has proposed that €500 million be allocated for the EUMAM, €1 billion for joint purchases from the European defence industry and Norway, and €3.5 billion for destocking and individual deliveries. The proposed reimbursement rate is 43%, lower than previous rates. A transition period has also been proposed in order to move from a destocking model to a purchasing model, with joint purchasing in particular.
Asked by Agence Europe about the eighth tranche of assistance from the €500 million European Peace Facility, still blocked by Hungary, this senior official hoped that the agreement could be adopted soon.
Middle East. Ministers will then discuss the situation in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza, where humanitarian aid is still struggling to arrive.
Earlier this week, the EU High Representative announced that a policy debate would be held on Israel’s compliance with the Association Agreement, in order to ascertain the position of each Member State. On 14 February, the Prime Ministers of Ireland and Spain asked the Commission and the High Representative to examine how and whether the Israeli government’s behaviour complies with the obligations arising from this Association Agreement (see EUROPE 13350/1).
Ministers could also agree in principle to sanctions against around 10 Hamas members responsible for sexual violence and six violent settlers in the West Bank. They will all be sanctioned under the EU’s human rights regime, but this will be done with two separate Council decisions, adopted separately and not simultaneously, a European source explained. The first step will be to punish Hamas and then the settlers.
The Council may consider the risk of the conflict spreading in the region, in particular the tensions between Israel and Lebanon, the new Aspides operation in the Red Sea and the longer-term political process in the Middle East.
Belarus. Ministers are also expected to discuss the situation in Belarus, in particular the repression of the Lukashenko regime, which has not diminished following the elections in late February (see EUROPE 13358/8). There are reportedly more than 1,500 political prisoners in the country. The Council may consider the support that the EU can give to civil society and the democratic opposition.
It is also expected to discuss Belarus’ assistance to Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine. Ministers may discuss new sanctions linked to human rights violations in the country. Several Member States are calling for the sanctions against Minsk to be brought into line with those against Moscow, but this proposal is not unanimously supported.
Russia. The Council is expected to adopt targeted sanctions in connection with the mistreatment of political opponent Alexei Navalny, who died on 17 February (see EUROPE 13353/2). It could also discuss the possibility of a sanctions regime linked to human rights violations targeting Russia, which would be supported by the majority of Member States. This regime could bear Navalny’s name.
According to a senior European official, a statement by the EU27 could be published on Monday morning, ahead of the Council meeting, concerning the “so-called elections” in Russia from 15 to 17 March. A text is currently being discussed by the Member States. On Friday 15 March, even before the polls opened, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, ironically said that he wanted to “congratulate Vladimir Putin on his landslide victory in the elections starting today”. “No opposition. No freedom. No choice”, he added.
Other topics. Ministers may discuss the tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and European support for Yerevan. The security situation in Niger, with the closure of two EU CSDP missions, and also in Haiti, may also be raised (see EUROPE 13370/5). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)