The European Foreign Affairs Ministers will be meeting in Brussels on Monday 22 January and will once again be discussing support for Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East.
After a traditional exchange of views with the Ukrainian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, by videoconference, the Ministers will discuss the EU’s long-term security commitments and military support for Ukraine.
The Ministers could quickly discuss the €50 billion ‘Ukraine Facility’ and a section for Ukraine of the ‘European Peace Facility’ (EPF), while the 8th tranche is still blocked by Hungary. Aid to Ukraine will be at the heart of the summit of European leaders on 1 February. Discussions are underway to reform the ‘European Peace Facility’, which could focus more on joint procurement than on the transfer of equipment in stock . The EPF would continue to fund the training of Ukrainian soldiers via the EUMAM mission.
Work on a 13th sanctions package could also begin soon, with the aim of adopting it on the 2nd anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Several Member States have put forward proposals for new measures, including new dual-use goods, restrictions on Russian diplomatic presence in the Schengen area to prevent travel, and new transit bans on goods that cannot be imported into Russia but are sent to third countries via Russia, with the risk of never reaching these third countries. “If there is a clear ban on transit through Russia and Belarus, this will close a major loophole”, pleaded a senior European diplomat. This diplomat pointed out that, since the 11th sanctions package, it has been possible to take measures against companies from third countries helping Russia. “Some Member States think that the tool is already a deterrent, but in my view it needs to be used at least once to make it a deterrent”, the diplomat explained. Additional measures to prevent circumvention of existing sanctions could also form part of a new package.
The Ministers could also take stock of the frozen Russian assets, while, according to one source, an agreement could be reached in the next few days or weeks. “We are very close to an agreement”, explained the source, adding that, until now, there had been no Member State veto, but that the instrument was new, with a number of legal issues to be resolved.
Speed dating-like structure regarding the Middle East
The Ministers will then discuss the situation in the Middle East, in a “rather complex choreography”, admitted a senior European official. They will be holding talks with the new Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, in the morning.
The heads of European diplomacy will then hold talks over lunch with the Secretary General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, and the Foreign Ministers of Saudi Arabia, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Egypt, Sameh Shoukry, and Jordan, Ayman Safadi, in particular to discuss what can be done to restore a political future at a time when the Israeli Prime Minister has once again reiterated his opposition to a two-State solution, a solution defended by the EU.
In the afternoon, the Ministers will hold talks with their counterpart from the Palestinian Authority, Riyad al-Maliki. According to a European source, one of the aims of these discussions is to provide food for thought for Europe.
The Ministers will then discuss developments on the ground, including the need for a humanitarian pause as the situation in Gaza deteriorates daily.
In addition, on Friday 19 January, the EU adopted a new sanctions regime dedicated to Hamas, including restrictive measures - asset freezes and travel bans - against six people who help finance Hamas (see other news). Discussions on measures against violent settlers are continuing, and no decision is expected from the EU Council. Some Member States believe that those responsible for the attacks on 7 October should be punished first, before turning their attention to the settlers. “There is no specific timetable” for a decision, said a European source.
Future Red Sea mission
The EU Council will also discuss the risk of escalation in the wider region. They could quickly address the situation on the border between Israel and Lebanon in the Red Sea, with the Houthi attacks.
The EU is considering launching a mission to secure navigation in the area. On Friday, several sources agreed that the mission could be launched at the Foreign Affairs Council on 19 February, following a discussion by the Defence Ministers at their informal meeting on 30 and 31 January.
According to a European source, there is a consensus in favour of such a mission. Although Spain has officially announced that it will not be taking part, a source said that Madrid would have no objection to the creation of such an operation. This could be based on the Agenor mission. According to one diplomat, it should have defensive tasks, such as analysing the maritime awareness, accompanying ships, with the possibility of defending merchant ships in the event of an attack (with, for example, interceptor drones).
For the time being, the operation will be limited to naval resources. One senior diplomat estimated that three ships would be needed. “There are already a number of Member States with assets in the region that are part of Agenor”, explained another diplomat.
On Friday 19 January, Belgium officially announced its participation in the mission, and Germany may deploy a ship.
The Ministers may quickly discuss the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Ahead of the EU Council, the Ministers will have breakfast with their Egyptian counterpart, Sameh Shoukry. An EU-Egypt Association Council will be held in Brussels on Tuesday 23 January, during which a framework agreement on Egypt’s participation in EU programmes will be signed. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)