On Wednesday 31 May, the EU’s agricultural organisations and cooperatives (Copa-Cogeca) presented an initial impact assessment on the plan to ban the use of cages in livestock farming (see EUROPE 13167/4).
The study focuses on two sectors and three scenarios: a ban on farrowing crates for sows and enriched cages for laying hens with an immediate transition by 2025 (scenario A), a transition by 2035 (B) and a transition by 2045 (C).
The study’s conclusions show that pig production in the EU is expected to fall from 23.6 to 8.4-0.5% depending on the scenario. Investment costs could be between €2.1 and €3.5 billion.
For poultry production, the decrease is likely to be smaller, but similar investments could be expected of at least €3.2 billion.
This drop in production will have repercussions on the EU’s trade balance. In most scenarios, demand on the internal market would not fall in proportion to the fall in production, leading to a sharp rise in imports, particularly of pork (between 1,086% and 43.7%), but also of eggs (between 18% and 5%). EU exports of pork and eggs would fall sharply. In all three scenarios, the EU’s trade balance would be in deficit for these main types of animal production by 2045, according to Copa-Cogeca. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)