The executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said, on Wednesday 22 February, that the European Union, by speeding up the diversification of its energy supply and the energy transition, had managed, since the start of Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine a year ago, to “move mountains” in a sector of activity traditionally slow to change.
Mr Birol, who was attending a feedback conference for a project helping 17 Member States to reduce their dependence on Russian hydrocarbons (see EUROPE 12927/6), listed several figures to illustrate his point. Over the period under review, Russian gas and oil revenues fell by 38% and the share of Russian gas in the EU’s energy mix fell from 40% to less than 10%. At the same time, solar and wind power production increased by 41%, heat pumps by 40% and electric car sales increased by 15%, all contributing to a 2.5% reduction in CO2 emissions.
Speaking on behalf of the European Commission’s energy services, Ditte Juul Jørgensen said that by 2023, renewable energy production will increase by 69 gigawatts or the equivalent of 13 billion m3 (cbm) of gas.
On Tuesday, the EU’s statistical office (Eurostat) reported that gas consumption in the EU between August 2022 and January 2023 had fallen by 19.3% compared to the average consumption over the same period between 2017 and 2022. This is above the 15% target set in EU law (see EUROPE 13000/1).
Warning. However, Mr Birol warned against complacency: the winter of 2023-24 could be even more difficult for the EU.
In his view, there are three reasons for this: - the 30 cbm flow of Russian gas that the EU still receives could very well dry up; - the annual additional supply of LNG will be very small in 2023; - after the economic and health difficulties of 2022, China could regain its position as the world’s largest importer of LNG.
“It is time to start thinking about next winter”, said Mr Birol.
The IEA’s executive director spoke of the high energy costs the EU still faces, even if gas prices have fallen back to levels before the Russian military aggression. These costs are seven times higher than in the US and three times higher than in China, he noted. He therefore called for a specific strategy to strengthen the competitiveness of the European industry in the face of competition, while China already produces 75% of the world’s electric batteries and more than 80% of solar panels.
The project, funded by the European Technical Support Instrument for Reforms, has put in place “technical and administrative solutions” to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russian hydrocarbons, said Mario Nava, Director-General of the DG for Structural Reform Support of the EU Commission. Six countries have thus been able to set up digitalised administrative systems to speed up the granting of permits for renewable energy production. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)