EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 23 January to discuss the situation in Ukraine once again.
Ukraine. After a video conference with their Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, to take stock of the situation, the heads of European diplomacy will discuss European aid for Ukraine. The discussion will take place ahead of the EU/Ukraine summit on 3 February and the first ‘anniversary’ of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
According to several sources, the EU Council could agree to the seventh aid tranche of €500 million from the European Peace Facility (EPF) and a €45 million assistance package for equipment for Ukrainian soldiers trained by the EU’s mission, EUMAM, also through the EPF.
The 10th package of sanctions against Russia could be discussed, as could the price cap on oil and refined products (see EUROPE 13097/6, 13077/20).
Ministers will discuss support for Ukraine’s civil resilience and follow up on the Paris conference of 13 December (see EUROPE 13082/11).
They could look at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan. “It is important that Ukraine has shown the parameters of a possible diplomatic solution, because it also shows other countries that the problematic country is Russia”, explained a European source. Another source recalled that the EU was already working on aspects of the plan such as nuclear, demining and accountability.
The question of how to bring to justice the perpetrators of war crimes in Ukraine, as well as the most senior Russian politicians, will also be a matter of discussion for the ministers. Although the Member States have not reached a concrete common position on this issue, the European Council had in any case instructed the Commission to explore ways to deal with the crime of aggression in October 2022.
Some progress has been made since then and the Commission is considering not only a special tribunal but also an interim prosecution office, pending sufficient international support for the former (see EUROPE 13102/4).
Ministers will discuss the various prosecution options available and possible, in particular the special hybrid or international tribunal (see EUROPE 13074/3).
Sahel and coastal countries of West Africa. The ministers will exchange views to take stock of the situation in the Sahel which has continued to deteriorate since the military coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, an increase in the terrorist threat and a spillover to the north of the Gulf of Guinea coastal countries (see EUROPE 13068/26).
It will be a matter of “looking for guidelines to guide and shape our future action”, a European diplomat said on Friday. “The fear of a terrorist threat to coastal states has become a reality. These countries want our cooperation”, he added, citing Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo.
The presence of the Wagner group will be discussed, as well as the need to have “a global vision with the Sahel which remains a strategic political priority. We need to work with countries that have the capacity to tackle these different issues”.
According to another diplomat, the idea is to “close ranks, to remain committed to the Sahel, despite the political difficulties, and also to draw sufficient attention to the coastal states by renewing European commitments in these two regions”. He also considered that “the Russians are throwing oil on the fire” and spoke of an “anti-French feeling that seems like an anti-European feeling”.
Believing that these complex circumstances have changed the situation since the EU’s integrated strategy for the Sahel adopted in April 2021 which focuses on development, stability, security and defence (see EUROPE 12701/6), another diplomatic source said: “ We had a regional approach until 2021. We need action that focuses on the Gulf of Guinea to complement what we are doing for the Sahel, working with willing countries”.
Palestine. The ministers will have lunch with the Palestinian Prime Minister, Mohammad Shtayyeh, who is expected to be accompanied by his foreign affairs minister, Riyad al-Maliki.
Discussions will focus on the EU’s support for a two-state solution, the situation on the ground, particularly after the appointment of a new Israeli government and the UN resolution of 30 December asking the International Court of Justice to look into the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, and the lack of Palestinian elections.
The Council is expected to discuss ways to strengthen the relationship between the EU and the Palestinian authorities. There is thought to be momentum within the Member States to move forward on an association agreement, partnership priorities or a high-level ministerial dialogue, as desired by the Palestinians. This would be a kind of mirror image of the resumption of the EU-Israel Association Council.
Iran. The Council should also adopt new sanctions against those responsible for human rights violations in Iran. This will be the fourth package of sanctions since the death of Mahsa Amini and the violent repression of peaceful protests (see EUROPE 13044/12). A further 37 individuals and entities are expected to be subject to restrictive measures. While the European Parliament called on Thursday 19 January for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to be included on the list of terrorist organisations (see EUROPE 13103/16), political and legal discussions between Member States are continuing and no decision is expected on Monday. According to a European source, the High Representative of the Union is reluctant to include the IRGC on the list because of the consequences it could have for the negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme, while Iran has already warned that it would have an impact. The issue of the IRGC’s inclusion on the US list stalled negotiations for several months (see EUROPE 12921/28).
Afghanistan. Ministers also want to follow up on recent announcements, including the ban on Afghan women studying at university and working for NGOs (see EUROPE 13090/26, 13091/4). At this stage, the aim is to gather Member States’ first impressions, i.e. how they envisage future relations.
This concerns, for example, humanitarian and development aid to Afghanistan. As a senior European official points out, between 30 and 40% of humanitarian aid on the ground is delivered by women through NGOs. Despite some exceptions granted or under negotiation for health and primary education and in some Afghan provinces, the Taliban ban thus directly affects the actions of the EU and its Member States.
As for further sanctions against the Taliban, “it is unlikely that there would be wide support for this”, but it could be discussed by ministers.
The ministers may return to the situation in Afghanistan at their meeting on 20 February.
Caucasus. The ministers are also expected to agree on the establishment of a civilian mission in Armenia on the border with Azerbaijan (EUMA Armenia) (see EUROPE 13102/23). The purpose of the mission will be, among other things, to observe the situation on the ground and to contribute to the establishment of a climate for discussions between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis. According to a diplomat, the aim is to launch this mission at the Council meeting on 20 February.
Ethiopia. The High Representative will provide a quick overview on progress since the signing of the peace agreement between the government and rebels in Tigray in December, which Mr Borrell welcomed on behalf of the EU (see EUROPE 13090/23). “There is a ceasefire. We are keeping our fingers crossed that it will last”, a diplomatic source said on Friday.
The French minister, Catherine Colonna, and the German minister, Annalena Baerbock, will inform their colleagues about their recent joint visit to Addis Ababa, ahead of the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the Élysée Treaty, to reiterate their political support and that of the EU for the implementation of this peace process and to confirm to the Chairperson of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki, the joint commitment to close cooperation with the AU (see EUROPE 13099/19).
Montenegro. On behalf of the High Representative, Slovenian minister Tanja Fajon and Austrian minister Alexander Schallenberg will report on their trip to Montenegro on 21 December to call on the country to overcome its political and institutional crisis by appointing judges to the constitutional court (see EUROPE 13089/7).
Venezuela. The Council will return to the situation in Venezuela as the country becomes less isolated on the international scene (see EUROPE 13072/16), the National Assembly has decided to dissolve the interim government of Juan Guaidó and negotiations resumed in November in Mexico.
Nuclear. In addition, ahead of the Council, the ministers will discuss the nuclear situation in Ukraine and Iran with the Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, who has just returned from Ukraine. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Aminata Niang and Léa Marchal)