Under current policies, average global warming is expected to reach 2.8°C by the end of the century, well above the targets of the Paris Agreement, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said on Thursday 27 October in the 2022 edition of its report on the gap between the needs and prospects for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Published a few days before the start of the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27), this report is once again sounding the alarm.
It highlights the gap that still exists between the climate commitments made by states in their ‘nationally determined contribution’ (NDCs) and the GHG emission reductions needed to meet the Paris Agreement, i.e. to limit average global warming to well below 2°C, striving for no more than 1.5°C.
“The window to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees is closing fast (...) We are headed for a global catastrophe”, said UN Secretary General António Guterres.
According to UNEP, implementing the current commitments would lead to warming of 2.4°C (in the case of conditional commitments) or 2.6°C (in the case of unconditional commitments).
The new and updated commitments pledged in the NDCs since COP26 would only reduce projected global GHG emissions in 2030 by 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) compared to projections based on commitments made at the time of COP26.
The report also notes a lack of progress since COP26, despite calls for countries to strengthen their climate targets and put in place ambitious policies.
Lamenting a “wasted year”, the UN estimates that the new commitments will avoid less than 1% of projected global emissions by 2030.
To keep warming to 1.5 or 2°C, global GHG emissions in 2030 must be reduced by 45 and 30% respectively compared to projections based on current policies.
Mr Guterres therefore renewed his call to move away from fossil fuels and to massively scale up renewable energies.
The implementation of all NDCs plus the commitments of some countries to climate neutrality could limit warming to 1.8°C. However, this scenario is “not credible”, given the gap between current emissions, short-term NDC targets and long-term net zero targets, the report says.
COP27 will be held from 6 to 18 November in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/3ua (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)